Once again, it’s time to check in on market conditions for another community on Maui. Let’s head Upcountry and look at the Kula real estate market. Kula spans a vast geographic area along the Western Flank of Haleakala. It runs from roughly 1,200 feet in elevation up to 4,000 feet. From an MLS perspective it includes smaller communities like Keokea, Ulupalakua and Kanaio. Kula is an agricultural hub of Maui with a number of fruit, flower and vegetable farms dotting the landscape as well as some larger livestock operations. Homes range from modest plantation style homes on rural or residential lots to substantial estates on big acreage. This post looks at market activity for the year to date as well as a few thoughts on the market outlook.

Notable Numbers from this Year’s Kula Home Sales

• As of September 13th, 65 homes sold in Kula during 2021. That is a 33% increase over the 49 sold during the same period of 2020.
• The median price of the homes sold in Kula during 2021 is $1,225,000. The average price of the homes sold is $1,521,778. The median price and average price are up 28% and 38% respectively compared to the same period of 2020.
• Fifty-seven percent of the homes sold in Kula this year closed for asking price or higher.
• The highest priced home to sell this year closed for $9,200,000. Home doesn’t quite do the property justice. The sale included two lots totaling 23 acres, two extra large water meters, a 7,809 square foot main house, a pool, a detached 7 car garage and a second 2,712 square foot home. This is the highest ever sales price for a residential property in Kula.
• This was one of 13 sales over $2,000,000 for the year to date. That compares to 3 during the same period of 2020.

Thoughts on the Kula Home Market for the Year to Date

Like the rest of the island, the Kula home market experienced robust activity over the year to date. Demand was high while supply remained low. Based on the rate of sales, there were 3.3 months supply of home inventory in January. After that, it dropped as low as 2.1 months supply in April and has yet to climb above 3 months supply again. Strong demand and limited supply helped to boost prices significantly. The question is how much? The change in average price and median price don’t just reflect shifts in value. They also reflect an increase in activity at higher price points in the market. Sales of homes over $2,000,000 increased 433% compared to 2020.

Outlook for The Kula Home Market for the Rest of the Year

It’s the classic push pull of supply and demand that should be in play for the rest of the year. At this point, it appears as if demand remains strong. We started unofficially tracking a new metric in our office over the last few weeks. We are looking at how quickly new listings are going under contract. With a high number of properties going under contract in less than a week, it is pretty clear that demand is still pretty strong. The question is whether we might see any relief with new inventory. While inventory is slowly increasing on the mainland, it remains near all time lows in Kula and Maui in general.

The Kula Land Market

Kula is an area of the island where you tend to see more land sales. A handful of new developments over the last few years and smaller subdivisions usually translates into a healthy supply. This year, increased buyer activity put a serious dent in inventory numbers.

Notable Numbers from the Kula Land Market

• As of September 13th, Maui Realtors reported 35 land sales for the year. That is up 21% from the 26 sales over the same period of 2020.
• The median sales price of the lots sold is $930,000. The average sales price is $1,058,473. The median price increased 206% from the median of $450,000 during the same period of 2020. The average price increased 24% compared to last year’s average of $853,148.
• The lowest priced transaction closed for $350,000. That was for a 1/2 acre lot without water.
• The highest priced lot to sell closed for $4,500,000. That parcel in lower Kula included 148 acres of land.
• That was one of 11 lots to sell for more than $1,000,000. By comparison, there was just one lot that sold for $1,000,000 or more during the same period of 2020. That one sale was a large land acquisition by the state of Hawaii.

Kula Land Market Activity and Outlook

The Kula land market mirrored many of the other places around the island in terms of market activity for the year to date. Higher demand, shrinking supplies and rising prices. The increase in higher priced sales was another particularly notable aspect of this year’s activity. As mentioned above, there was just the one sale over $1,000,000 in 2020 compared to the 11 sold thus far this year. Seven more properties listed for $1,000,000 show as pending on the MLS. This constitutes a massive increase in demand for higher end properties in Kula.

A lot of the higher end sales activity occurred in the Kula I’o subdivision. This gated community of 2.5 acre-25 acre lots experienced modest sales activity the first couple of years on the market. The development benefited from this year’s increased high end sales activity with 15 closes ranging in sales price between $830,000 and $1,650,000. At this point, most of the developer’s lots in Kula I’o are sold or pending. That said, I imagine we will see resales and CPR lots in the future.

It’s important to keep the increased higher end activity in mind when looking at the big shift in median and average prices. While limited supply and increased demand led to rising values, the 206% increase in median price is largely a reflection of the increased sales activity with high end lots. While the big land, big view lots in Kula I’o heavily influenced the average and median price in 2021. The big driver in 2020 was a subdivision with half acre lots in the $450,000-$500,000 price point.

Moving forward, inventory or lack thereof is going to be the big market driver for the rest of the year. Unless there is a big influx of new inventory, I can’t anticipate a lot of sales activity. If demand remains relatively strong, I anticipate that the combination of demand and low inventory will mean continued upward pressure on pricing.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

The Maui Real Estate Team works extensively in the Kula market. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in property in Kula. We would welcome the chance to discuss the market and learn more about your real estate interests and needs. You can search the active inventory of Kula Homes for Sale and Kula Land for Sale on MauiRealEstate.com.

I challenge you to find a segment of the Maui Real Estate market that experienced a more drastic reversal of fortune over the last 12 months than vacation rental condos. With tourism shut down starting in April of 2020, demand for vacation rental condos shrank rapidly over the spring and summer. With no rental revenue to offset costs and economic forecasts calling for a slow rebound in tourism, many owners opted to sell. Inventory rose steadily through spring, summer and early fall. On October 15, 2020, the state rescinded the mandatory quarantine rules for incoming travelers. Residents and vacationers who tested negative could avoid the Covid vaccine. This marked the first step in a gradual shift in the market.

For the first couple of months after tourism reopened, visitor numbers were a fraction of what the island experienced pre-Covid. That said, buyer demand ticked upwards and supply slowly ticked downwards as soon as visitors returned. With the start of the new year, a significant shift occurred. Visitor numbers recovered far faster than anticipated. Apparently, many of the visitors were vacation rental condo buyers.

Soaring Sales and Shrinking Inventory

They say a picture is worth a thousand words. These two pictures tell the tale of the Maui Vacation Rental condo market pretty succinctly. Buyers returned to the market in big numbers in early 2021. With a pretty healthy inventory of condos to choose from, the volume of transactions grew quickly. Buyer activity reached its peak in March with 290 condos under contract. Volume started to dip in April. While there was a minor uptick in May, the number of properties under contract continues to fall.

The healthy inventory of condos in January and February quickly gave way to scarcity. A ravenous buyer pool quickly chewed through much of the inventory. Anecdotally, I started to get a lot of e-mails from other Realtors beating the bushes searching for unlisted properties in late March and April. The inventory continued to fall through late Spring and the summer. The contrast between this summer and last summer is pretty stark. While many popular condo complexes had double digit inventory in the summer of 2020, most currently have a handful of active listings at most. The overall condo inventory is less than 25% of last summer.

Shrinking inventory is in turn impacting the volume of properties under contract. There are far less active condos for sale now than there were that went under contract in March back in the peak of the market. It is difficult to compare demand now compared to demand back in the late winter and early spring. Anecdotally, it feels like demand is down some. That said, with such limited supply market dynamics feel similar to the spring when demand and supply were both higher. Plain and simple, it is a strong sellers market.

Strong Demand Plus Declining Inventory Equals Rising Prices

With strong demand and dwindling supply, it’s not surprising to see the trajectory of prices. While median prices on island tend to fluctuate based in part on the composition of condos sold within a given month, there are clear signs of price increases. The median price of the vacation rental condos sold in August of 2020 was $600,000. The median price of vacation rental condos sold in August of 2021 is $747,500.

Other Notable Numbers From the 2021 Maui Vacation Rental Condo Market

• There were 880 vacation rental condos sold on Maui between January 1, 2021 and August 25th, 2021. That is a 221% increase in activity compared to the same period of 2020.
• The average price of condos sold between January 1, 2021 and August 25th is $1,079,000 and the median price is $715,000.
• The lowest priced vacation rental condo to close sold for $110,000. That was a leasehold, oceanfront, one bedroom at Maui Sands.
• The highest priced transaction for the year to date closed for $14,250,000. This was for a 3 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom, direct beachfront unit at Wailea Beach Villas.
• There was a lot of activity in the higher price ranges of the vacation rental condo market. The Wailea Beach Villas sale was one of two transactions that closed over $10,000,000. It was one of nineteen sales over $5,000,000 and one of ninety-two sales over $2,000,000.
• Kihei was the busiest market with 278 closes.
• Kapalua saw the biggest increase in activity of any area of the island compared to the same period of 2020. The 80 closes as of August 25th are a 615% increase in activity over the same period of 2020.
• Kamaole Sands was the busiest individual condo development for sales. There were 33 condos sold for the year as of August 25th. Honua Kai was the next busiest with 31 condos sold.

Market Outlook for Buyers

As mentioned above, scarcity is a challenge for buyers in this market. The summer did not bring any inventory relief. July and August had the fewest new condo listings since April of 2020. It will be interesting to see if we see more inventory in the fall. Mainland markets are seeing a slow increase in inventory. Is our lack of inventory a reflection of different dynamics in play on Maui, or are we just seeing some lag before we catch up to trends on the mainland?

Might we also see a decrease in demand? A report from Redfin in June indicated demand for second and vacation homes started to shrink in the spring. They cited a variety of factors including decreased affordability and tighter underwriting standards. They also indicated that many that intended to buy a second home already made their purchase.

I can see where affordability could start to impact demand on Maui. Price increases over the year are significant. Those looking for strong cap rates are likely to be discouraged. While rents are up some this year thanks to strong demand, they aren’t quite keeping pace with appreciation. Buyers more focused on cap rate rather than personal use of the condos will be less likely to buy in the current market.

Last but not least, the adverse impact of Covid is not over. Cases are up sharply in Hawaii and hospitals are strained. Some tourists are heeding the governor’s calls to delay visits due to the recent surge. Hotels are reporting cancellations over the next two months. Will that dampen demand at all?

Market Outlook for Sellers

The market outlook for sellers is pretty clear. There is still good to strong demand and inventory is limited. Prices are up. If you aren’t using your condo or you are just looking to cash out, this is a good time to sell. It is worth noting that while the market is supporting strong appreciation, it is still quite possible to overprice your property. Approximately 53% of the current active listings are on the market for over 30 days. If you want to sell quickly, it still makes sense to look at recent comparable sales when formulating a pricing strategy.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in buying or selling a vacation rental condo on Maui. For buyers, we would be happy to review current inventory options in your price range and keep our ears open for unlisted properties. For sellers, we would welcome the opportunity to give you a free broker’s price opinion on your condo. We look forward to being of assistance.

This is the third installment of our summer community real estate market updates. Today’s post focuses on the North Shore community of Haiku. It follows recent posts on Spreckelsville and Paia and Kuau. Haiku spans a large geographic area along the north side of Haleakala. It ranges in elevation from sea level to about 1,500 feet in elevation. Located on the windward side of the island, Haiku’s landscape is more lush due to more frequent trade showers.

The area was a focal point of agriculture pre-western contact. In the more recent historical period, it was an area of plantation agriculture with both pineapple and sugar cane serving as the primary crops. The agricultural legacy is evident in the zoning. The bulk of the properties in the area are zoned agricultural. Most agricultural lots include 2 or more acres. Acreage is one of the biggest appeals to this area of Maui. There is still smaller scale farming in the area. Many homeowners have orchards and/or gardens. Other draws to Haiku include the area’s natural beauty, access to nearby water sports and proximity to a variety of schools.

Notable Numbers from This Year’s Haiku Home Sales

• Maui Realtors reported 66 sales in Haiku for the year to date as of August 17th. That is a 27% increase over the same period of 2020.
• The median sales price of the homes sold is $1,177,500. The average sales price is $1,440,507. This is also up significantly over the same period of last year when the median and average were $870,000 and $1,104,884 respectively.
• The lowest priced property sale for the year to date closed for $600,000. This 977 square foot house and cottage on a 12,284 square foot lot sold prior to going on the MLS. I venture that it likely would have sold above this price if it went to market.
• The highest priced sale closed for $6,650,000. That property includes a 4,500 square foot home with a pool and a large barn on 38.91 acres.
• That sale is one of nine properties to close over $2,000,000 and one of four that closed over $3,000,000.
• There are currently 16 homes under contract in Haiku with 4 of those listed for more than $2,000,000.

Thoughts on the Haiku Market for the Year to Date

Like the rest of the island, the Haiku area is seeing strong demand and limited supply. This is reflected in both the higher than average sales activity, and the increase in prices. Sales volume for this period is higher than not just the same period of 2020, but also the same period of any of the last five years. Both median and average price increased significantly over 2020. The increase in average price reflects not just rising prices, but also additional activity in the higher price points of the Haiku market. This is part of a two year trend for higher priced sales in Haiku. There are 21 homes that closed for $2,000,000 or more in Haiku since January 1, 2020. That is 27% of the sales for $2,000,000 or more in the last 20 years!

The Outlook for Haiku Homes for the Rest of 2021

While buyer demand remains strong, inventory is incredibly limited in Haiku. As of this moment, there are only 17 active home listings. That’s a fraction of what we typically see in Haiku. Inventory is particularly scarce below $1,000,000 with only 4 active listings. By comparison, there are 7 listings over $2,000,000. While some markets on the continent are seeing inventory rebound, we aren’t seeing it in Haiku. Sales volume for the rest of the year will be hard pressed to keep pace with the first seven plus months of 2021 unless more listings come to market. It will also likely mean continued upward pricing pressure.

The Haiku Land Market

Haiku sees more land sales than most parts of the island. It typically has more land inventory available. Haiku Town Acres and Kauhikoa Farms are two newer subdivisions created in the last five years that drove recent activity. The rest of the inventory consists of resales from older subdivisions or lots created from smaller scale subdivisions. CPR lots are increasingly common.

Notable numbers from the Haiku Land Sales in 2021

• Maui Realtors reported 29 lots sold for the year as of August 17th. The median price of the lots sold is $585,000. The average price of the lots sold is $813,190.
• The highest price lot closed for $2,499,000. It is a 20.5 acre oceanfront lot located to the East of the Peahi surf break.
• The 20.5 acre oceanfront parcel was the only sale over $2,000,000, but it was one of eight sales for $1,000,000 or more.
• The eight sales equals the total for all of 2020. The last two years are now tied for the busiest year ever for $1,000,000 or more land sales in Haiku.

Haiku Land Sale Overview and Outlook

Strong demand helped push pricing up in the Haiku land market in 2021. As the overall real estate market on Maui hit another gear in the first quarter of 2021, buyers quickly snatched up much of the remaining land inventory in Haiku. I remember clearly in January and February when a number of the properties that sat on the market in the fall went under contract in close succession. Replacement inventory has yet to come to market. As it stands, there are only 9 active land listings in Haiku. The lowest priced listing is currently $1,300,00! When lower priced lots come on the market, it feels more like an auction than a conventional real estate listing.

Barring a substantive increase in inventory, I would surmise that we will see really limited sales volume and continued price appreciation. That said, land pricing does not operate in a vacuum. Construction costs are high due to increased material and labor costs. If the cost to build plus the cost of land far exceeds the price of existing homes, buyers won’t support the higher land prices. Land buyers should evaluate potential construction costs and create an overall budget prior to hopping into a frothy land market.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team

The Maui Real Estate Team keeps close tabs on the Haiku market. A number of our office’s agent call the community home. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are looking for property in Haiku. We would welcome the chance to learn more about your real estate interests and needs. You can view active Haiku home listings and Haiku land listings on MauiRealEstate.com.

Unsurprisingly, Paia’s Real Estate Market is Busy in 2021

We thought it might be a good time to check in on the Paia Real Estate market. Our office is based in this North Shore beach town. Paia’s real estate market consistently sees strong demand and limited inventory. Demand stems from the combination of the town’s charms, amenities and its proximity to fantastic ocean sports. It is known for surfing, windsurfing, kite surfing, foiling, stand up paddling and more. The limited inventory is due in part to constrained housing supply. Bordered on one side by ocean and the other three sides by agricultural land, there isn’t much room for growth. The total supply of homes grew only slightly since the early 2000s. Prior to Covid-19, the market experienced lower sales volume due to limited inventory. Activity remained limited during the first half of 2020 with momentum building over the last few months of the year. For the first seven months of 2021, activity surged with the most closed transactions since 2018.

This post looks at the activity for the year to date in Paia. it is worth noting that our local MLS lumps, Spreckelsville, Paia and Kuau together. The focus of this post is just on the Paia and Kuau area. We posted on Spreckelsville 2021 market activity in July.

Paia Real Estate Market 2021 Notable Numbers

• Maui Realtors reported 18 homes sold during the first 7 months of 2021. This is well above the sales volumes over the same periods of both 2019 and 2020.
• The median price of the homes sold is $900,000. The average price is $2,129,832.44.
• The lowest sale price in the community for the year is $705,000 for a home in the Skill Village neighborhood. It has three bedrooms, two and half bathrooms and 978 square feet of living space on a 6,739 square foot lot.
• The highest priced transaction for the year to date is $9,100,000 for a 7,660 square foot home and a 936 square foot cottage on a 1.28 acre oceanfront lot in Kuau. That is the highest ever sales price for a home in Paia or Kuau.
• We also saw the highest ever sales price for a non-oceanfront home in the Paia and Kuau area. A 2.2 acre compound across the street from the ocean with a 3,171 square foot home, a 989 square foot cottage and two pools closed for $8,375,000.
• The Skill Village neighborhood had the most sales activity of any neighborhood with 7 sales for the year to date.
• In addition to the 18 homes sold, there are an additional 6 pending sales at this time.
• There were also two condos at Kuau Plaza that closed in the first 7 months of the year.

Neighborhood Updates

As mentioned above, Skill Village saw the most sales activity of any neighborhood in the Paia area. Skill Village typically is the most accessible neighborhood by price in the Paia area. The strong demand for entry level homes in the community helped push up pricing. The three all time highest sales prices in Skill Village all happened during the first six months of 2021. They include a new neighborhood high price of $900,000.

Skill Village wasn’t the only entry level neighborhood with higher activity levels. The Paia Halealani neighborhood had 3 sales. While that doesn’t sound like a lot, this subdivision located between North Shore Village and the Paia Community center typically doesn’t see much in the way of activity. Only 3 homes sold in the five years prior to 2021. Sales prices also went up substantially. A home that closed for $1,200,000 shattered the previous neighborhood high sale.

On the other end of the spectrum, there wasn’t much activity in Kuau Bayview with just one listing and one sale. This is typically one of the more in demand neighborhoods in Paia, but there just aren’t many sellers at this time.

While not a neighborhood per say, I wanted to touch on activity in the Paia oceanfront market. There were two ocean front sales in the first seven months of the year. There are two additional oceanfront properties under contract. As mentioned above, the one oceanfront sale set a new record high for the Paia and Kuau area excluding Spreckelsville.

Outlook for the Rest of 2021

While the Maui market isn’t quite as frenzied as the first few months of 2021, it is still a strong seller’s market. Demand in the Maui Real Estate market remains steady. Well priced properties are still tending to go under contract quickly with multiple offer situations common. At this point, supply is likely to have the biggest impact on sales for the rest of 2021 in the Paia and Kuau area. Like many parts of the Maui market, inventory levels are well below normal. There are currently 16 homes listed for sale and 6 of those are already under contract. The remaining 10 include 4 over $7,000,000 and just 2 under $1,000,000. Buyers looking at the entry levels for Paia will find that inventory is particularly limited.

Some mainland markets are starting to see supplies slowly creep up. On Maui inventory remain at or near all time lows. It will be interesting to see if and when we might see inventory levels start to increase in Paia. Supply constraints were impacting market activity prior to Covid. My suspicion is that inventory will be slower to rise in Paia.

Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested buying or selling property in Paia. The Maui Real Estate keeps close tabs on our back yard market. We would welcome the chance to discuss your real estate needs.

While last week’s stats post was the first in a long time, it’s been even longer since I posted a neighborhood specific update. With that in mind, no time better than the present to catch up on the real estate happenings in the Spreckelsville neighborhood on Maui’s North Shore. This beachfront community is a favorite of the Maui Real Estate Team. Our broker Billy calls it his home as does Martin Lenny, one of our agents. The combination of convenient location, great beaches and access to world class wind and water sports make this an incredibly desirable location. Today’s post takes a look at market activity during the Covid-19 era.

Notable Sales Numbers

• Eight properties sold in Spreckelsville between April of 2020 and June of 2021. That includes 6 homes and 2 lots.
• Seven of the eight sales were cash transactions. The one other sale was a trade.
• The Maui Real Estate Team represented the buyer or the seller on seven of the eight sales.
• There was only one off market sale during this period. All of the other sales made it to the MLS.
• The sales activity was spread throughout all but the Kai Holu Subdivision. The sales included one home closed in the Sprecks V area, one home on Stable Road, one home and one lot in E Paepae Ka Puko’a (The Spencer Subdivision). The rest of the sales were in Old Sprecks.
• One oceanfront home closed thus far during Covid. There is a second oceanfront home pending.
• The highest priced transaction to close came in at $4,000,000 for a home on .57 acres on Stable Road. The four bedroom, two bath home sits one lot back from the oceanfront with easy beach access. This transaction closed in March of 2021.
• The highest priced lot closed for $2,750,000. This .789 acre lot is situated off of Nonohe in Old Sprecks is right next to the Maui Country Club with deeded access to Stable Road.
• In addition to the 8 sales, there are three properties under contract including our office’s listing at Sugar Cove.

Thoughts on The Sprecks Market

Maui’s high end real estate market boomed during Covid-19. More accurately, it took off in late 2020 and through the first half of 2021. Home sales over $2,000,000 are up 335% during the first five months of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020. They are up 368% compared to the first five months of 2019. Areas like Kapalua, Ka’anapali and Upcountry Maui saw record sales volume for luxury property. That also meant the occasional bidding war and an above asking sales prices became more common.

The Sprecks market hasn’t hit the same heights as some of the other areas of the island. While the five properties sold for the year to date is the highest since 2014, it wasn’t unprecedented. None of the properties that sold closed above asking price and we only saw one multiple offer situation. This is not an indictment of the Sprecks market or the appeal of the neighborhood. It is more of a reflection of the fact that Spreckelsville is a high demand low sales volume area. Inventory levels consistently remain low with limited turnover. Many of the markets that saw the sharpest increase in activity came into Covid with an abundance of inventory. Plentiful supply combined with strong demand to create record sales volumes.

Spreckelsville Market Outlook

Based on the above, I imagine it isn’t too much of a surprise that I view inventory as the driving factor in the market for the remainder of 2021. There are currently four active listings and three pending listings. Based on recent trends, I would imagine that additional inventory will remain relatively scarce. Check out our Spreckelsville Real Estate listings page for the current inventory of homes for sale. Contact the Maui Real Estate Team if you are interested in buying or selling a property in Spreckelsville. We know the market since it is our own backyard.

When the pandemic started, we provided weekly updates on market conditions on Maui. There were a lot of unknowns at that point and plenty free time to put together statistics. As market conditions improved from the doldrums of the spring and summer of 2020, carving out time became harder. By the middle of fall, weekly updates slipped to once every few weeks. I last posted a market update in mid-January. The frequency of the posts inversely correlates with market conditions. A quieter market meant more frequent posts, while the dearth of posts over the last 6 months is a testament to the busiest period of real estate transactions seen on Maui to date.

I had a little bit of time to catch my breath this week so I wanted to catch you up on market conditions through the first five months of 2021. While I am loathe to enter the world of prognostication after the surprising turn in market conditions last year, I will also provide a few thoughts on the outlook for the next few months.

Booming Demand

The Covid-19 Pandemic created a real estate boom in a number of markets throughout the mainland United States as early as late Spring of 2020. Due to the travel restrictions to Hawaii, the Maui market remained comparatively quiet. We saw a modest uptick in activity in June after stay at home orders were lifted. As the year progressed, momentum increased. The resumption of tourism in October caused another uptick in demand. The Maui market hit a whole new gear in 2021.

Maui Realtors reported 598 homes sold during the first five months of the 2021. That calculates to roughly a 57% increase over the 389 homes sold during the same period of 2020. The difference in sales between 2021 and 2020 increased in part due to growing demand, but also due to the fact that Covid-19 impacted April and May 2020 sales volumes . The monthly difference in sales volume started at 18.8%in January and peaked at 290% in May. To be clear, the sales volumes for 2021 don’t look strong just due to weaker 2020 numbers. By comparison, home sales for the first five months of 2021 were 33.4% stronger than the same period of 2019.

Maui Realtors reported an impressive 1,019 condos sold over the first five months of 2021. That represents an 81% increase in sales volume over the 564 condos sold during the same period of 2020. As with the single family home market, the difference in sales between the two years is due in part to depressed sales in April and May of 2020, and a big surge in activity in 2021. This is evident in the monthly numbers. The January 2021 sales volume actually fell below January 2020 by 10%. Sales volume picked up dramatically in February of 2021 as evidenced by the 24.6% increase over February 2020. By May, the difference in monthly sales volume between 2021 and 2020 rocketed up to 448%. It is notable that the months of March through May were the first ever months where condo sales volumes exceeded 200 closed transactions on Maui.

Shrinking Inventory

While the number of properties going under contract soared, the number of new listings coming to market remained limited. The result was rapidly shrinking inventory for the first five months of the year.

According to the Realtors Association of Maui (RAM), there were only 203 active home listings at the very end of May. That is 37% below the 318 active home listings at the end of December. It is 54% lower than at the end of February 2020 right before covid impacted the market. The home inventory declined steadily throughout the pandemic.

As of the end of May, RAM reported 224 active condo listings. This is 68% below the number of active condo listings at the end of December. It is 58% below the number of condos for sale listed right before the start of Covid at the end of February of 2020. The decline in condo inventory hasn’t been quite as linear as the decrease in home inventory. Active condo inventory grew every month between March of 2020 and December of 2020. That makes the decrease in inventory in 2021 all that much more dramatic. It is also worth noting that the home and condo inventory weren’t exactly robust going into the start of Covid. Pre-Covid, there was less than 6 months of homes and condo inventory.

I would surmise that some of the recent decreases in sales volume may be due in part to the lack of inventory. Buyers are looking, but there just isn’t much out there to buy. Well priced properties are still seeing a frenzy of activity.

Rising Prices

Strong demand and shrinking inventory resulted in a lot of upward price pressure over the first five months of 2021. This is evident as Maui’s median sales priced crossed the $1,000,000 barrier for the month of May.

If you are long time readers of this blog, you may know that I am somewhat wary of using median sales price as a means of tracking changes in property values. The change in median price is based in part on change in value and also in part due to the composition of sales. A higher number of high end sales in anyone month can help push median sales price upwards. There is no doubt that this is a factor in the current market. We are seeing a much higher number of high end properties closing in this market. That said, it is also clear that prices are increasing.

Determining an exact number for the change in values is difficult. The Maui market is pretty heterogeneous in terms of structure size, lot size, location, view and finishing. There is also some variability in how much values are increasing in different geographies and price points. Contact us to discuss changes in value specific to areas of the market of interest to you.

What to Expect Going Forward?

I gave up prognosticating on this market earlier in the pandemic. If you told me market conditions would be what they are now back in April of 2020, let’s just say I would be skeptical. With that in mind, there are some things that I will be watching for over the months ahead.

Inventory The number of active listings tumbled throughout the spring on Maui. The limited inventory means a continued seller’s market. That said, we are starting to see increasing inventory on mainland markets. According to Altos Research, the inventory of single family homes nationally is up 7% since April 30th. Will our market start to see the increase in inventory? We seemed to lag behind the mainland market in terms of market trends throughout Covid-19 due to our inaccessibility. Will that continue?

Overly Ambitious Sellers As mentioned above, we are currently seeing strong appreciation in the market. Over the last month, I have started to see some pretty ambitious list prices with prices well above recent comparable sales. Will buyers be willing to absorb these higher prices due to lack of inventory? If not, will sellers be willing to adjust their pricing downward. Thus far, I am seeing a little bit of both. Some sellers are adjusting quickly to negative market feedback. Others have the means to wait and see if the market will come to them.

Interest Rates Global supply change disruptions due to Covid are causing inflationary pressure. There is a lot of argument amongst people a lot smarter than me as to how long this will continue. Inflation can bring rising interest rates. Thus far, the Federal Reserve is not inclined to raise rates. They view the inflation as temporary. If inflation were to be more prolonged, pressure to react may increase.

Other Impacts on Buyer Demand Rising interest rates are just one factor that could impact buyer demand. It’s pretty clear that a significant portion of buyers over the last year came from off island. Maui became a Zoom Town so to speak. With rising levels of the population fully vaccinated, some businesses are calling their employees back to the office. What does that mean for demand going forward? Could that also impact supply if some of those called back to the office decide to sell their homes?

Covid also brought a surge of second home buying. There are some signs that this may be cooling in other markets around the country. Redfin released a report this week that showed mortgage applications for second homes are decreasing. They attributed this in part due to tightened rules for second home lending. They also attribute decreased demand due to rising home prices. Some second home buyers are feeling priced out after recent price increases.

These affordability issues already knocked a lot of local home buyers out of the market. Some are priced out. Others are struggling to compete with the cash or higher down payments from affluent buyers relocating from the Continental United States.

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While I am again tentative to offer any sort of forecast, I would surmise that we won’t see any seismic shifts in market conditions anytime soon. Any relief in supply is likely to be gradual while the recovering economy should sustain some demand. Buyers looking in this market are likely to find that well priced properties generate a lot of interest. Bidding wars are common at all price points. The competitions can be particularly fierce at and below the $1,000,000 mark. Sellers will find favorable market conditions. With such limited inventory, it is hard to be overlooked by the market. This means that sellers will get market feedback on their pricing pretty quickly. Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you are considering buying or selling property on Maui. We would welcome the opportunity to provide a free consultation.