It’s time for another Maui Real Estate Market Update. We did not post anything last month. While the market was less busy than expected in March, we struggled to find the time to crunch the February numbers. If you are a true data geek, this post has the end-of-February inventory numbers, all of the end-of-March inventory numbers, and March market activity numbers. We also provide some market observations. Keep reading to find out more.
March Market Activity
This is a quick note about a change in format for this section. Rather than using 2019 numbers, I include an average of March 2017-2019 in the charts below. Averaging three months in consecutive years gives you a better sense of “normal” pre-COVID market conditions.
March New Listings
| March 2024 | March 2023 | March 2022 | March 2021 | March 2020 | March 17-19 Avg. | |
| Homes | 90 | 75 | 120 | 159 | 88 | 149 |
| Condos | 155 | 106 | 188 | 191 | 181 | 167 |
New home inventory increased 20% over March 2023. It was 25% lower than in March 2022. It was 40% lower than the 149-home average of March 2017, 2018 and 2019. New condo inventory came in 46% higher than March of 2023. It was 14% lower than in March 2022 and 7% lower than the average number of new condo listings in March 2017, 2018, and 2019.
March New Pending Sales
| March 2024 | March 2023 | March 2022 | March 2021 | March 2020 | March 17-19 Avg. | |
| Homes | 60 | 68 | 101 | 144 | 50 | 114 |
| Condos | 82 | 82 | 169 | 285 | 57 | 164 |
New Pending sales decreased 12% compared to March 2023. This March’s new pending sales were 41% below March 2022 and 47% below the average between March 2017 and 2019. New pending condo listings were the same as last year. This March’s new pending sales came in 51% below March 2022 and 50% of the average number of new condo pending sales between 2017 and 2019.
March Sales
| March 2024 | March 2023 | March 2022 | March 2021 | March 2020 | March 17-19 Avg. | |
| Homes | 69 | 73 | 98 | 118 | 82 | 96 |
| Condos | 90 | 116 | 183 | 228 | 157 | 136 |
Home sales in March were 5.5% lower than March 2023. This March’s numbers were 30% below March 2022 and 28% below the average between March 2017 and March 2019. Condo sales in March were 22% lower than in March 2023. The March condo sales were 51% below March 2022 and 34% lower than the average for the three months of March between 2017 and 2019.
End of March Maui Home Inventory
The tables below show active and pending inventory by price point and community on the last day of March. Inventory from the last days of January and February are provided for context and to illustrate recent trends. Of note, Makawao and Wailuku’s pending sales numbers are getting a boost from longer-term contracts at the new developments of Hoku’ula and Anuhea at Kehalani, respectively. The longer-term pending sales in those communities also boost numbers in the $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 price range. There are also some longer term Hoku’ula pending sales boosting the $1,500,000 to $1,999,999 price range.
| January 31, 2024 | February 29, 2024 | March 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$750,000 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 3(-3) | 8 (-2) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 9 | 22 | 10 | 15 | 11 (+1) | 17 (+2) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 16 | 55 | 23 | 42 | 20 (-3) | 45 (+3) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 28 | 28 | 35 | 25 | 44 (+9) | 27 (+2) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 32 | 12 | 37 | 16 | 42 (+5) | 11 (-5) |
| $3,000,000-$,4,999,999 | 45 | 9 | 44 | 12 | 49 (+5) | 8 (-4) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 41 | 4 | 47 | 4 | 47 | 5 (+1) |
| $10,000,000-$19,999,999 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 0 (-1) |
| $20,000,000 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Total | 195 | 140 | 221 | 125 | 235 (+14) | 121 (-4) |
| January 31, 2024 | February 29, 2024 | March 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Haiku | 15 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 20 (+4) | 5 (-3) |
| Hana | 13 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 11 (-2) | 3 (+2) |
| Ka’anapali | 12 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 16 (+2) | 2 |
| Kahului | 0 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 5 (+1) | 10 (-2) |
| Kapalua | 9 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 2 (+1) |
| Kihei | 14 | 15 | 21 | 16 | 30 (+9) | 15 (-1) |
| Kula | 27 | 9 | 26 | 9 | 22 (-4) | 8 (-1) |
| Lahaina | 23 | 5 | 22 | 10 | 25 (+3) | 7 (-3) |
| Makawao | 16 | 24 | 16 | 17 | 17 (+1) | 21 (+4) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 9 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 15 (+2) | 3 |
| Pukalani | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 (+1) | 2 (-1) |
| Sprecks/Paia | 10 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 2 (-1) |
| Wailea | 19 | 10 | 22 | 6 | 18 (-4) | 5 (-1) |
| Wailuku | 18 | 35 | 20 | 32 | 18 (-2) | 36 (+4) |
Five Notable Things About the End of March Home Inventory
The active inventory of homes for sale increased 6.33% between the last day of February and the last day of March. This is the second straight month that inventory has increased. The number of pending home sales decreased 3% between the last day of February and the last day of March.
Looking at end-of-the-month active inventory by price point, inventory increased at four price points, decreased at two, and remained the same at three. The biggest increase occurred between $1,500,000 and $5,000,000. The decreases in inventory occurred below $750,000 and between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999.
Pending sales increased in four price ranges, decreased in four price ranges, and remained unchanged in two price ranges. Most of the increase occurred between $750,000 and $2,000,000, and the biggest decrease occurred between $2,000,000 and $5,000,000.
Looking at active inventory by community, eight communities saw an increase, four decreased active inventory, and two remained unchanged. Kihei and Haiku saw the largest increase in active inventory. Wailea and Kula’s active inventory decreased the most.
Pending home sales decreased in eight communities, increased in four, and remained unchanged in two. Wailuku and Makawao, two communities with a backlog of pending sales from new developments, had the highest increase in pending sales. Lahaina and Haiku had the most significant month-to-month drop in pending sales.
End of March Maui Condo Inventory
The tables below show active and pending condo sales by price point and community on the last day of the month from January through March. Wailea and the price points between $1,500,000 and $5,000,000 continue to receive a boost in pending sales due to long-term developer contracts at La’i Loa, but this impact continues to diminish. Forty-three of the seventy-five units in the development have now closed. The rest of the units should be completed by July.
| January 31, 2024 | February 29, 2024 | March 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$250,000 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 (+1) | 0 |
| $250,000-$499,999 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 28 (+12) | 12 |
| $500,000-$749,999 | 36 | 29 | 44 | 32 | 50 (+6) | 32 |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 83 | 17 | 79 | 28 | 93 (+14) | 33 (+5) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 76 | 23 | 87 | 28 | 89 (+2) | 29 (+1) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 52 | 19 | 53 | 23 | 55 (+2) | 20 (-3) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 35 | 31 | 44 | 30 | 54 (+10) | 21 (-9) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 30 | 15 | 28 | 16 | 32 (+4) | 12 (-4) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 22 (+4) | 0 (-3) |
| $10,000,000+ | 8 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Total | 350 | 144 | 377 | 173 | 432 (+55) | 160(-13) |
| January 31, 2024 | February 29, 2024 | March 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Ka’anapali | 59 | 14 | 62 | 19 | 74 (+12) | 15 (-4) |
| Kahului | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 9 (+4) | 1 (-3) |
| Kapalua | 22 | 4 | 26 | 5 | 27 (+1) | 5 |
| Kihei | 109 | 44 | 121 | 50 | 140 (+19) | 55 (+5) |
| Lahaina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 (+1) | 0 |
| Ma’alaea | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 14 (+5) | 8 (+1) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 75 | 19 | 86 | 18 | 94 (+8) | 25 (+7) |
| Wailea | 61 | 50 | 60 | 58 | 66 (+6) | 39(-19) |
| Wailuku | 10 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
Five Notable Things from the End of March Condo Inventory
Active condo inventory increased 14.6% between the last day of February and the last day of March, marking seven consecutive months of increasing active inventory. Pending inventory fell by 7.6% between the last day of February and March.
Since the end of February, active inventory has increased at all price points except one. The most significant increases occurred between $250,000 and $499,999, $750,000 and $999,999, and $2,000,000 and $2,999,999. The only price range that did not increase in inventory was the $10,000,000 plus range.
Pending inventory increased at two price points, decreased at four, and remained unchanged at four. It increased between $750,000 and $1,499,999 and decreased at all price points between $1,500,000 and $10,000,000.
Active inventory increased between the last day of February and the last day of March in all communities but one. Only Wailuku did not see an increase in condo listings. The most significant increases in active listings occurred in Ka’anapali and Kihei.
Pending inventory increased in three communities, decreased in three, and remained unchanged in three. Substantial increases occurred in Napili/Kahana/Honokowai and Kihei. Wailea’s pending sales declined the most between February 29th and March 31st. Some, but not all, of that decrease can be attributed to new developer sales at La’i Loa.
Observations on the Market
We are rapidly approaching the end of peak buyer’s season on Maui. Market activity for the first quarter is coming in pretty close to last year. Home and condo sales in the first quarter increased 7.6% and 5.1%, respectively, compared to the first quarter of 2023. New pending home sales during the first quarter rose 2.2% while new pending condo sales fell 2%. Remember that last year’s first quarter was much quieter than the previous couple of years and a lot slower than the pre-COVID-19 years.
The aftereffects of the Lahaina fire continue to impact the market in varying ways. The busiest part of the home market is for properties $1,400,000 and under. The pool of buyers in this range includes displaced Lahaina residents with insurance proceeds. Well-priced homes in this price range are selling quickly and frequently, attracting multiple offers.
The vacation rental condo market and segments of the resort market are seeing similar activity to 2023 despite stronger headwinds. Again, while 2023 was a low sales volume year, this year’s numbers are a little surprising considering that tourism numbers are 20% lower than last year.
The vacation rental condo market is also seeing continuing regulatory uncertainty. As the local government continues to struggle to house displaced Lahaina Residents, calls remain to ban vacation rentals from West Maui for the next couple of years. Some are looking for an outright ban. The governor decided against a two-year ban, but other legislative efforts are ongoing.
With relatively quiet buyer activity and an increase in new listings compared to last year, overall inventory levels are increasing. Again, the growth is more pronounced in the condo market. Lower rental revenues, rising costs, uncertainty, and high prices incentivize some owners to try to cash out. The current condo inventory levels are getting closer to the numbers that we saw in late 2019 and early 2020 before COVID-19. There is some nuance here though with inventory remaining scarce in some complexes and communities.
While we have seen two straight months of increased home inventory, overall inventory levels are still well below what we saw before COVID-19. Low inventory levels in the $1,500,000 and under price range are contributing to the competition in this range mentioned above.
The higher price points are seeing more inventory growth. Sales are up compared to last year, so this appears to be more of a reflection of more people deciding to list.
Looking forward, predicting the market’s direction remains a fool’s errand. That said, we will be watching a few things that could influence the market, including interest rates, property taxes, and insurance.
This month’s higher-than-anticipated inflation numbers make the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June significantly lower. The question is, where will mortgage rates settle over the next few months? We saw an uptick in the immediate aftermath of the latest inflation news.
Maui County Council will be voting on new property tax rates next month. The mayor’s budget suggested we will see higher tax rates for all or most tax classifications as the county grapples with the fiscal challenges in the aftermath of the Lahaina Fires. This is one of a couple of increased costs of ownership that may incentivize some sellers to go to market and/or make it harder for stretched buyers to qualify for purchases. How much this impacts the market, if much at all, will depend on the extent of property tax increases that county council approves.
Insurance is the other cost of ownership that will be going up. Insurance rates are increasing nationally, and due to the August Fires, rates are under additional upward pressure locally. The changes in the insurance market are hitting condos particularly hard. While some condo associations have been able to weather the increase in rates, some are having to increase maintenance fees, and we know of a handful of condos doing special assessments after seeing insurance bills jump upwards of 500% or more.
Over the last two years, the Maui market has continued to appreciate despite some significant headwinds. However, it remains to be seen whether market prices will sustain momentum as the costs of ownership increase.
A Little Maui Beauty to Wrap Up This Post
