As we reach the middle of August, we wanted to look at market activity on the island in July. Our Maui Real Estate Market Update Q3 2024 Vol. 1 looks at new July listings, pending sales, closed transactions, and end-of-the-month inventory levels. The numbers show recent trends towards lower buyer activity, and increasing inventory continued through July. Keep reading to see last month’s numbers and for a few thoughts on the state of the market.
July Market Activity
July New Listings
| July 24 | July 23 | July 22 | July 21 | July 20 | July 17-19 Avg | |
| Homes | 83 | 78 | 74 | 123 | 127 | 127 |
| Condos | 139 | 87 | 104 | 124 | 201 | 159 |
July new home listings were 6.4% higher than July 2023. However, they were 34.6% below the average number of new home listings in July 2017, 2018, and 2019. July new condo listings were 59.8% higher than in July 2023. Yet they were still 12.6% below the average number of new condo listings for July 2017, 2018, and 2019.
July New Pending Sales
| July 24 | July 23 | July 22 | July 21 | July 20 | July 17-19 Avg | |
| Homes | 56 | 48 | 58 | 121 | 98 | 91 |
| Condos | 50 | 62 | 89 | 153 | 97 | 125 |
July’s new pending home sales increased 16.7% over July 2023. That number should be preceded by an asterisk, though. We can only track last year’s new pending sales that closed. Quite a few contracts from July 2023 were canceled immediately after the Lahaina and Kula Fires. For some context, July new pending home sales were 38.4% below the average number of new pending home sales for July 2017, 2018, and 2019.
New pending condo sales were 19.4% below July of last year. As with the new pending home sales, July 2023 condo sales had higher transaction attrition due to the fires in August. Last month’s new pending condo sales came in 60% below the average number of new condo pending sales below July 2017, 2018, and 2019.
July Sales
| July 24 | July 23 | July 22 | July 21 | July 20 | July 17-19 Avg. | |
| Homes | 49 | 65 | 83 | 107 | 83 | 93 |
| Condos | 65 | 75 | 96 | 203 | 91 | 132 |
July home sales came in 24.6% below July 2023. They were 47.3% below the average number of home sales during July 2017, 2018, and 2019. This July’s condo sales were 13.3% below July 2023. They were 50.8% below the average number of condo sales in July 2017, 2018, and 2019.
End of July Home Inventory
The tables below show active and pending inventory by price point and community on the last day of July. Inventory from the last days of May and June are provided for context and to illustrate recent trends. Makawao and Wailuku’s pending sales continue to be boosted by longer-term developer contracts in Hoku’ula and Anuhea at Kehalani. Those developments also boost pending sales in the $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 price ranges.
| May 31, 2024 | June 30, 2024 | July 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$750,000 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 3 (-2) | 9 (+1) |
| $750-000-$999,999 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 21 (+3) | 17 (-3) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 37 | 46 | 47 | 45 | 58 (+11) | 45 |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 45 | 31 | 56 | 26 | 59 (+3) | 28 (+2) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 44 | 11 | 42 | 11 | 44 (+2) | 14 (+3) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 46 | 10 | 55 | 6 | 54 (-1) | 8 (+2) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 49 | 6 | 46 | 6 | 49 (+3) | 4 (-2) |
| $10,000,000-$19,999,999 | 14 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 1 (+1) |
| $20,0000,000+ | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Totals | 259 | 130 | 294 | 122 | 313 (+19) | 126 (+4) |
| May 31, 2024 | June 30, 2024 | July 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Haiku | 24 | 11 | 22 | 10 | 25 (+3) | 9 (-1) |
| Hana | 15 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 18 (+1) | 0 |
| Ka’anapali | 14 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 21 (+2) | 2 (+1) |
| Kahului | 10 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 13 (+1) | 9 (-1) |
| Kapalua | 10 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 9 (-1) | 2 |
| Kihei | 35 | 22 | 41 | 14 | 47 (+6) | 15 (+1) |
| Kula | 28 | 13 | 35 | 12 | 34 (-1) | 9 (-3) |
| Lahaina | 23 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 24 (-2) | 2 |
| Makawao | 13 | 17 | 13 | 22 | 11 (-2) | 23 (+1) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 13 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 16 (+3) | 7 (-1) |
| Pukalani | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 (+1) | 4 |
| Spreckelsville/Paia | 14 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 16 (+3) | 1 (+1) |
| Wailea/Makena | 21 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 16 (-2) | 5 (+2) |
| Wailuku | 23 | 35 | 38 | 32 | 45 (+7) | 34 (+2) |
Five Notable Things About The End of July Inventory
Active home listings increased 6.5% between the last day of June and the last day of July. Pending home listings increased 3.3% between the end of June and the end of July.
Active inventory increased in five of the nine price ranges we track, decreased in two, and remained unchanged at the two highest price ranges. The $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 price range saw the biggest increase in active listings.
Pending inventory increased in five price points, decreased in two, and remained unchanged in two. The biggest increase in pending sales occurred between $2,000,000 and $2,999,999. The biggest decrease occurred between $750,000 and $999,999.
Looking at inventory by community, active listings increased in nine communities and decreased in five. The most significant increases in active home inventory occurred in Kihei and Wailuku. While no communities saw a big decrease in inventory, Wailea, Makawao, and Lahaina’s active listings all decreased by two.
Pending listings increased in six communities, decreased in four communities, and remained unchanged in four communities. Wailea and Wailuku both saw a month-to-month increase of two pending listings. Kula had the biggest decrease in pending listings, with three fewer pending listings between the end of June and the end of July.
End of July Maui Condo Inventory
The tables below show active and pending condo sales by price point and community on the last days of May, June, and July. The La’i Loa effect on pending sales is almost over. As of the last day of July, just ten new pending sales were remaining based on long-term new developer contracts. That said, this points to quieter resale activity in Wailea, where there are just six condo resales under contract.
| May 31, 2024 | June 30, 2024 | July 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$250,000 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 (+1) |
| $250,000-$499,999 | 30 | 8 | 41 | 5 | 47 (+6) | 9 (+4) |
| $500,000-$749,999 | 96 | 27 | 106 | 28 | 144 (+38) | 16 (-12) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 144 | 13 | 155 | 14 | 152 (-3) | 14 |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 129 | 12 | 127 | 13 | 138 (+11) | 14 (+1) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 62 | 18 | 66 | 11 | 69 (+3) | 9 (-2) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 56 | 11 | 59 | 13 | 62 (+3) | 8 (-5) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 33 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 32 (+1) | 4 (-2) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 21 | 2 | 22 | 3 | 21 (-1) | 1 (-2) |
| $10,000,000,+ | 8 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 7 (-2) | 0 |
| Totals | 585 | 99 | 620 | 94 | 676 (+56) | 77 (-17) |
| May 31, 2024 | June 30, 2024 | July 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Ka’anapali | 84 | 7 | 87 | 10 | 91 (+4) | 9 (-1) |
| Kahului | 12 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 4 (+1) |
| Kapalua | 36 | 2 | 36 | 2 | 38 (+2) | 2 |
| Kihei | 217 | 34 | 234 | 36 | 262 (+28) | 24 (-12) |
| Lahaina | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 (+2) | 0 |
| Ma’alaea | 16 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 20 (+1) | 1 |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 127 | 14 | 131 | 14 | 150 (+19) | 16 (+2) |
| Pukalani | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wailea | 74 | 29 | 80 | 20 | 77 (-3) | 16 (-4) |
| Wailuku | 12 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 15 (+3) | 5 (-3) |
Five Notable Things About the End of July Maui Condo Inventory
Active condo listings increased 9% between the end of June and the last day of July. Pending condo listings fell 18% between June 30th and July 31st.
Active condo listings increased in six price ranges, decreased in three, and remained unchanged in one. The active inventory in the $500,000-$749,999 price range increased 36% between the end of June and the last day of July. Decreases in active listings tended to be modest.
Pending listings increased in three price ranges, decreased in five, and remained unchanged in two. Again, the $500,000-$749,999 price range had the most notable inventory shift, with 42.9% fewer pending listings.
Active condo listings increased in seven communities, decreased in one community, and remained unchanged in two. Kihei and the Napili, Kahana, and Honokowai area had the biggest increase in active listings. Wailea was the only community where active inventory decreased between the end of June and July.
Pending sales increased in two communities, decreased in four, and remained unchanged in four. The increases in pending listings were modest, with one and two additional pending sales in Kahului and the Napili, Kahana, and Honokowai communities, respectively. Kihei had the most significant decrease in pending sales, with 33% fewer pending listings between the end of June and the last day of July.
Market Observations
The Maui Real Estate Market continues its recent trend of slower activity. Sales volume in the condo market remains particularly quiet. New pending sales for condos were slower over the three months between May and July than any other three-month period dating back to the fourth quarter of 2008. Buyers continue to sit on the sidelines, with many awaiting additional certainty on proposed legislation that would impact the Minatoya List. This legislation would prohibit vacation rentals at 6,500 condos on Maui that are zoned apartment. The Maui County Council will review the legislation this fall.
While monthly new condo listings are still below pre-COVID levels, they are well above what we saw in 2022 and 2023. Combine that with decreased demand, and you have expanding inventory levels. The total number of active condo listings is at levels last seen in 2017.
Most condo developments potentially impacted by expanded vacation rental restrictions are seeing values decrease. With a glut of inventory, some sellers made big price reductions to attract buyers. Some have been willing to accept offers for as much as 15-20% below recent sales. Other sellers are taking a wait-and-see approach keeping their prices higher.
Diminished market activity isn’t exclusive to the developments facing vacation rental restrictions. Condo sales are generally slower than usual. Other factors impacting the overall market include relatively high mortgage rates, affordability challenges, increased maintenance fees and assessments related to insurance, decreased visitor numbers, and just an ebb in demand in the wake of enhanced activity in 2021 and 2022.
The shift in the home market is less drastic than in the condo market, but we are seeing fewer buyers and increased inventory. While monthly new listings remain well below pre-COVID levels, decreased buyer activity leads to growing inventory. We remain well below pre-2020 inventory levels. In that sense, the home market is following national trends. Affordability challenges and an ebb in second-home demand after the frenzy of 2021-2022 are contributing to slower activity in our home market.
We have seen lower interest rates over the last few weeks. Rates dipped to 52-week lows before increasing slightly. Thus far, the lower rates are not pulling in buyers. It is thought that buyers are hoping to see even lower mortgage rates as the year progresses due to cooling inflation and rising unemployment.
That said, the increased inventory and lower demand may create buyer opportunities in the current market. Fewer buyers and increased inventory give buyers more leverage in negotiations. If lower rates come to fruition and spur a spike in demand, competition among buyers may resume. Timing a market can be challenging. If you are a home buyer looking for a property you intend to own over the long term and find one that meets your wants and needs, it may be a good time to put in an offer.
A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post
