The Maui Real Estate Market was particularly quiet this summer. September brought a shift in seasons and a modest shift in the market. Keep reading the Maui Real Estate Market Update Q3 2024 Vol. 3 to see the September numbers for new listings, new pending sales, closed transactions, and end-of-the-month inventory levels. We also give a few thoughts on what drove the numbers in September. Without further ado…
September Market Activity
It is worth providing some context for the comparisons below. September 2023 was the second quietest month for Maui buyer activity, behind only April 2020. Last September, Maui’s market slowed to a crawl after the fires in Lahaina and Upcountry.
September New Listings
| September 24 | September 23 | September 22 | September 21 | September 20 | Avg. September 17-19 | |
| Homes | 84 | 96 | 82 | 130 | 131 | 115 |
| Condos | 98 | 102 | 74 | 145 | 180 | 149 |
September new home listings were 12.5% less than September of 2023. They were 27% below the average number of new home listings in September 2017, 2018, and 2019. This September’s new condo listings were 4% lower than September 2023. They were 34.2% lower than the average number of new condo listings in September 2017, 2018, and 2019.
September New Pending Sales
| September 24 | September 23 | September 22 | September 21 | September 20 | Avg. September 17-19 | |
| Homes | 69 | 40 | 66 | 108 | 110 | 75 |
| Condos | 51 | 46 | 82 | 135 | 122 | 123 |
September’s new pending home sales increased 72.5% compared to September 2023. However, they were 8% below the average number of new pending home sales for September 2017, 2018, and 2019. September’s new pending condo sales were 10.9% higher than September 2023. However, they were 58.5% below the average for September 2017, 2018, and 2019.
September Closed Transactions
| September 24 | September 23 | September 22 | September 21 | September 20 | Avg. September 17-19 | |
| Homes | 49 | 66 | 55 | 110 | 103 | 91 |
| Condos | 47 | 65 | 96 | 177 | 85 | 120 |
The number of homes sold in September was 25.8% lower than September 2023. It was 46.2% lower than the average number of homes during September 2017, 2018, and 2019. The number of condos sold in September was 27.7% below September 2023. It was 60.8% below the average number of condos sold in September 2017, 2018, and 2019.
End of September Maui Home Inventory
The tables below show active and pending inventory by price point and community on the last day of September. Inventory from the last days of July and August are provided for context and to illustrate recent trends. Makawao and Wailuku’s pending sales continue to be boosted by longer-term developer contracts in Hoku’ula and Anuhea at Kehalani. Those developments also boost pending sales in the $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 price ranges.
| July 31, 2024 | August 31, 2024 | September 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$750,000 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 3 (-1) | 7 (-2) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 21 | 17 | 19 | 10 | 28 (+9) | 11 (-1) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 58 | 45 | 68 | 35 | 63 (-5) | 51 (+16) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 59 | 28 | 60 | 31 | 61 (+1) | 30 (-1) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 44 | 14 | 45 | 9 | 48 (+3) | 7 (-2) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 54 | 8 | 54 | 8 | 45 (-9) | 9 (+1) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 49 | 4 | 49 | 4 | 45 (-4) | 5 (+1) |
| $10,000,000-$19,999,999 | 19 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 19 (-2) | 0 (-1) |
| $20,000,000+ | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 (-1) | 1 (+1) |
| Totals | 313 | 126 | 325 | 107 | 316 (-9) | 121 (+14) |
| July 31, 2024 | August 31, 2024 | September 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Haiku | 25 | 9 | 25 | 9 | 26 (+1) | 9 |
| Hana | 18 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 19 (+2) | 0 (-1) |
| Ka’anapali | 21 | 2 | 20 | 2 | 18 (-2) | 3 (+1) |
| Kahului | 13 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 12 (-1) | 11 (+5) |
| Kapalua | 9 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 9 (-3) | 2 (+1) |
| Kihei | 47 | 15 | 54 | 10 | 56 (+2) | 12 (-2) |
| Kula | 34 | 9 | 28 | 12 | 25 (-3) | 14 (+2) |
| Lahaina | 24 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 18 (-4) | 1 |
| Makawao | 11 | 23 | 10 | 18 | 11 (+1) | 15 (-3) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 16 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 21 (+3) | 3 (-2) |
| Pukalani | 6 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 (+1) | 4 (+1) |
| Spreckelsville/Paia | 16 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 12 (-4) | 1 |
| Wailea/Makena | 16 | 5 | 17 | 6 | 19 (+2) | 4 (-2) |
| Wailuku | 45 | 34 | 54 | 30 | 51 (-3) | 42 (+12) |
Five Notable Things About The End of September Home Inventory
Active home listings decreased 2.8% between the last day of August and the last day of September. Pending home listings increased 13% between the end of August and the end of September.
When looking at active listings by price point, the number of actives increased in three price points and decreased in six. The $750,000-$999,999 price range saw the most significant increase in active listings, while the $3,000,000-$4,999,999 price range saw the most significant decrease.
For pending listings by price point, the number of pending listings increased in four and decreased in five. The most significant increase in pending listings occurred between $1,000,000-$1,499,999 price range.
When looking at active listings by community, seven communities saw increases and seven communities saw decreases. Napili, Kahana, and Honokowai saw the biggest increases in listings. The Spreckelsville and Paia area saw the biggest decrease in active listings. Lahaina also saw a substantial decrease.
Pending listings increased in six communities, remained unchanged in three, and decreased in five. Wailuku saw a substantial increase in pending sales, followed by Kahului. Makawao saw the largest decrease.
End of September Maui Condo Inventory
The tables below show active and pending condo sales by price point and community on the last days of July, August, and September.
| July 31, 2024 | August 31, 2024 | September 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$250,000 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8 (+1) | 3 (+2) |
| $250,000-$499,999 | 47 | 9 | 62 | 8 | 55 (-7) | 8 |
| $500,000-$749,999 | 144 | 16 | 168 | 11 | 171 (+3) | 13 (+2) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 152 | 14 | 146 | 19 | 139 (-7) | 17 (-2) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 138 | 14 | 134 | 19 | 127 (-7) | 17 (-2) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 69 | 9 | 61 | 6 | 60 (-1) | 6 |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 62 | 8 | 63 | 5 | 47 (-16) | 7 (+2) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 32 | 4 | 31 | 1 | 33 (+2) | 1 |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 21 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 18 (-4) | 1 |
| $10,000,00+ | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Totals | 676 | 77 | 700 | 71 | 664 (-36) | 73 (+2) |
| July 31, 2024 | August 31, 2024 | September 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Ka’anapali | 91 | 9 | 97 | 9 | 89 (-8) | 9 |
| Kahului | 11 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 12 (-2) | 3 (+1) |
| Kapalua | 38 | 2 | 36 | 8 | 35 (-1) | 3 (-5) |
| Kihei | 262 | 24 | 257 | 23 | 242 (-15) | 29 (+6) |
| Lahaina | 6 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| Ma’alaea | 20 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 22 (+1) | 1 (-1) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 150 | 16 | 169 | 10 | 163 (-6) | 11 (+1) |
| Pukalani | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Wailea | 77 | 16 | 69 | 9 | 63 (-6) | 10 (+1) |
| Wailuku | 15 | 5 | 25 | 7 | 27 (+2) | 6 (-1) |
Five Notable Things about the End of September Maui Condo Inventory
Active condo inventory decreased 5.1% between the last day of August and the last day of September. Pending inventory increased 2.8% over that same period.
Looking at active inventory by price point, it increased in three price ranges, remained unchanged in one, and decreased in six. Inventory increased the most between $500,000 and $749,999. It decreased the most between $2,000,000 and $2,999,999.
The number of pending sales on the last day of the month increased in three price ranges, remained unchanged in five, and decreased in two. All of the changes in pending sales were relatively minor.
For active inventory by community, active listings increased in two communities, remained unchanged in two, and decreased in six. Only Ma’alaea and Wailuku’s inventory increased. Wailea and Ka’anapali had the most significant percentage decrease in inventory.
Pending inventory increased in four communities, remained unchanged in three, and decreased in four. Kihei saw the most substantial increase in pending sales. Kapalua’s pending sales declined the most.
Maui Market Observations
After four consecutive months of increasing home inventory and twelve consecutive months of growing condo inventory, active home and condo listings finally decreased during September. The reasons for the decrease in inventory are different for homes and condos.
The home market saw a healthy bump in buyer activity in September. The 69 new pending sales were one of the highest monthly totals of the year and the most substantial number since the first quarter of the year. Buyers appeared to be responding to lower mortgage rates in the first few weeks of the month. Rates bottomed out around 6.1% on a 30-year fixed mortgage before climbing back over 6.3% by the last day of the month. New developer offerings were particularly popular with 21.7% of all the new pending sales in either Anuhea or Hoku’ula.
The number of pending condo sales increased by just two pending sales between the end of August and the end of September, so what caused the significant drop in inventory? The simple answer is canceled and expired listings. There were 89 condo listings that either expired or were canceled during September. That is well above the average of 43 canceled listings during September 2017, 2018, and 2019.
At this point, it is unclear what specifically drove all those sellers to pull their condos from the market. That said, it is safe to say limited buyer activity is playing its part. Transactions continue to be slow for condos on the Minatoya list. Some sellers are opting to give their listings a rest while uncertainty over vacation rental restrictions remains high.
Moving forward, it will be interesting to see what sort of activity we see during the rest of October and November. Mortgage rates are back over 6.5%, and the presidential election looms large in early November. Will the momentum in the home market persist? We will continue to keep you posted with the latest information and numbers on Maui Market Activity on this blog.
A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post
