You can feel the seasons changing on Maui. Our changes are slightly more subtle than on the mainland, but they are nonetheless there. Mornings are a crisper where I live Upcountry. Showers come more frequently as we enter our wet season. Bigger waves break along the beaches of the North Shore. This is one of my favorite times of year on Maui. With October done, it’s time to look at the latest happenings in the real estate market.
The Maui Real Estate Market Update Q4 2024 Vol. 1 examines market activity in October, including new pending sales, new listings, closed transactions, and end-of-the-month inventory. I also offer a few thoughts on market conditions. Keep reading for the latest numbers.
October Market Activity
Context is key when it comes to evaluating real estate statistics. It is important to remember that when comparing this October to October. The August 2023 fires impacted market conditions significantly through the fall. This helps make the numbers from this October look more favorable. The slower market conditions this October are much more apparent when compared to “normal” conditions back in October 2017, 2018, and 2019.
October New Listings
| October 2024 | October 2023 | October 2022 | October 2021 | October 2020 | Avg. October 2017-2019 | |
| Homes | 77 | 80 | 81 | 97 | 103 | 125 |
| Condos | 118 | 111 | 86 | 180 | 179 | 173 |
October new home listings fell 4% compared to October 2023. This October’s new home listings came in 38% below the average number of new home listings in October 2017-2019. October new condo listings were 6% higher than October 2023. However, this October’s new listings were 32% below the average number of new condo listings between October 2017 and 2019.
October New Pending Sales
| October 2024 | October 2023 | October 2022 | October 2021 | October 2020 | Avg. October 2017-2019 | |
| Homes | 54 | 48 | 48 | 100 | 92 | 83 |
| Condos | 60 | 59 | 63 | 161 | 133 | 125 |
October new pending home sales increased 12.5% compared to October 2023. However, they were still 35% below the average number of new pending sales during October 2017-2019. October’s new pending condo sales increased by approximately 2% compared to last October. However, this October’s new pending sales were 52% lower than the average number of new pending home sales in October 2017-2019.
October Closed Transactions
| October 2024 | October 2023 | October 2022 | October 2021 | October 2020 | Avg. October 2017-2019 | |
| Homes | 49 | 44 | 76 | 106 | 92 | 96 |
| Condos | 61 | 61 | 84 | 129 | 120 | 133 |
The 49 homes sold this October are 11% higher than the sales in October 2023. However, this October’s sales were 49% lower than the average in October 2017-2019. The number of condos sold in October was the same as last October. This October’s sales came in 54% below the average for the three October between 2017 and 2019.
End of October Maui Home Inventory
The tables below show active and pending inventory by price point and community on the last day of October. Inventory from the last days of August and September are provided for context and to illustrate recent trends. Makawao and Wailuku’s pending sales continue to be boosted by longer-term developer contracts in Hoku’ula and Anuhea at Kehalani. Contracts in those developments also boost pending sales in the $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 price ranges.
| August 31, 2024 | September 30, 2024 | October 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$750,000 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 (+1) | 7 |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 19 | 10 | 28 | 11 | 29 (+1) | 19 (+8) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 68 | 35 | 63 | 51 | 60 (-3) | 50 (-1) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 60 | 31 | 61 | 30 | 56 (-5) | 23 (-7) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 45 | 9 | 48 | 7 | 47 (-1) | 12 (+5) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 54 | 8 | 45 | 9 | 45 | 9 |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 49 | 4 | 45 | 5 | 47 (+2) | 4 (-1) |
| $10,000,000-$19,999,999 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 20 (+1) | 0 |
| $20,000,000+ | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 (-1) | 0 (-1) |
| Totals | 325 | 107 | 316 | 121 | 311 (-5) | 124 (+3) |
| August 31, 2024 | September 30, 2024 | October 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Haiku | 25 | 9 | 26 | 9 | 26 | 9 |
| Hana | 17 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 1 (+1) |
| Ka’anapali | 20 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 19 (-1) | 4 (+1) |
| Kahului | 13 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 15 (+3) | 14 (+3) |
| Kapalua | 12 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 10 (+1) | 1 (-1) |
| Kihei | 54 | 10 | 56 | 12 | 47 (-9) | 10 (-2) |
| Kula | 28 | 12 | 25 | 14 | 28 (+3) | 12 (-2) |
| Lahaina | 22 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 17 (-1) | 3 (+2) |
| Makawao | 10 | 18 | 11 | 15 | 8 (-3) | 18 (+3) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 18 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 17 (-4) | 3 |
| Pukalani | 7 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 5 (-3) | 5 (+1) |
| Spreckelsville/Paia | 16 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 14 (+2) | 0 (-1) |
| Wailea | 17 | 6 | 19 | 4 | 22 (+3) | 3 (-1) |
| Wailuku | 54 | 30 | 51 | 42 | 48 (-3) | 41 (-1) |
Five Notable Things About the End of October 2024 Maui Home Inventory
Active home listings decreased slightly less than 2% between the last day of September and the last day of October. Pending home sales increased almost 2.5% between September 30th and October 31st.
When you look at active listings by price point, four price ranges saw an increase in inventory, four decreased, and one remained unchanged. The price points where inventory increased tended to see nominal changes. The two price ranges between $1,000,000 and $1,999,999 saw the biggest decreases in active inventory.
For pending listings by price point, pending listings increased in two price points, decreased in four, and remained unchanged in three. The $750,000 to $999,999 price range and the $2,000,000 to $2,999,999 price range were the two price points that saw increased pending sales. Both saw a notable bump. The $1,500,000-$1,999,999 price range was the only price range where the decrease in pending sales was significant.
Looking at active listings by community, four communities saw increases in inventory, seven decreased, and two remained unchanged. The two communities with the biggest increase in inventory were Wailea and Kahului. Kihei had the biggest decrease in active listings.
Pending listings increased in six communities, decreased in six communities, and remained unchanged in two. Kahului and Makawao had the biggest increase in pending sales. Kula and Kihei saw the biggest decrease in pending sales, but there were only two fewer sales for both communities than the prior month.
End of October Maui Condo Inventory
| August 31, 2024 | September 30, 2024 | October 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$250,000 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 11 (+3) | 4 (+1) |
| $250,000-$499,999 | 62 | 8 | 55 | 8 | 47 (-8) | 9 (+1) |
| $500,000-$749,999 | 168 | 11 | 171 | 13 | 173 (+2) | 23 (+10) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 146 | 19 | 139 | 17 | 132 (-7) | 13 (-4) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 134 | 19 | 127 | 17 | 124 (-3) | 13 (-4) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 61 | 6 | 60 | 6 | 47 (-13) | 6 |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 63 | 5 | 47 | 7 | 50 (+3) | 8 (+1) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 31 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 32 (-1) | 2 (+1) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 22 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 18 | 0 (-1) |
| $10,000,00+ | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Totals | 700 | 71 | 664 | 73 | 640 (-24) | 78 (+5) |
| August 31, 2024 | September 30, 2024 | October 31, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Ka’anapali | 97 | 9 | 89 | 9 | 86 (-3) | 6 (-3) |
| Kahului | 14 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 14 (+2) | 4 (+1) |
| Kapalua | 36 | 8 | 35 | 3 | 34 (-1) | 0 (-3) |
| Kihei | 257 | 23 | 242 | 29 | 227 (-15) | 32 (+3) |
| Lahaina | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 12 (+4) | 1 (+1) |
| Ma’alaea | 21 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 19 (-3) | 4 (+3) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 169 | 10 | 163 | 11 | 153 (-10) | 10 (-1) |
| Pukalani | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 (-1) | 1 |
| Wailea | 69 | 9 | 63 | 10 | 60 (-3) | 12 (+2) |
| Wailuku | 25 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 33 (+6) | 8 (+2) |
Five Notable Things About the End of October 2024 Maui Condo Inventory
Active condo inventory fell 3.6% between the last day of September and Halloween. Pending condo listings rose 6.8% between the last day of September and October 31st.
Shifting to active condo inventory by price point, it increased in three price points, decreased in five, and remained unchanged in two. The distribution of price points where inventory increased was random. The most notable change was the increase in condo listings under $250,000. The price points between $750,000 and $1,999,999 all saw decreased inventory. The highest price points did not see an increase in inventory.
Pending condo sales increased in five price points, decreased in three, and remained unchanged in two. The most notable increase in pending listings occurred between $500,000 and $749,000. The most significant decrease in pending sales happened in the two price points between $750,000 and $1,499,999.
Looking at active condo inventory by community, inventory increased in three communities and decreased in seven. Lahaina, Kahului, and Wailuku were the three communities that saw inventory rise. Kihei and Napili, Kahana, and Honokowai’s active inventory decreased the most, although both areas still have substantial inventory.
Pending condo sales increased in six communities, decreased in three, and remained unchanged in one. Ma’alaea saw the biggest increase in pending sales. Ka’anapali and Kahului had the biggest decrease in pending sales.
Market Observations
October was the second straight month of decreased active listings and increased pending sales for homes and condos. This modest upturn in activity comes after a late spring and summer, which were incredibly slow. Market activity during those months was only slightly better than September 2023 (After the Lahaina Fire), April 2020, and the third quarter of 2008.
The bump in activity over the last couple of months came in part due to a brief period of lower mortgage rates in September. There was hope this summer that lower mortgage rates might spur a surge of market activity in the fall. However, the lower rates were short-lived, rising throughout October and into early November. After getting as low as 6.1% briefly during the middle of September, we are now close to 7.5%.
While the consensus was that projected federal rate cuts would lead to lower mortgage rates, a stronger economy, continued uncertainty over the trajectory of inflation and rising 10 year treasury notes pushed mortgages higher. It’s been a pretty safe bet to pick the opposite of projections for mortgage rates over the last couple of years. That continues to be the case.
Inventory is lowering despite low sales volume. At least some of the decreased inventory can be attributed to sellers giving listings a break before our busier winter season. It will be interesting to see how many sellers reenter the market this winter.
While the luxury market also saw fewer transactions, it is worth highlighting some noteworthy activity in Kapalua. Last month, Kapalua saw a new record-high sale when 9 Bay Drive closed for $26,450,000. This wasn’t an isolated close. Three of the four highest sales in Kapalua history have closed since August. That includes the highest sale in the Kapalua Place neighborhood and the highest in Plantation Estates. It will be interesting to see if the momentum continues in the Kapalua luxury home market this winter.
I thought it would be worth touching on the presidential election’s impact on the real estate market in the new year. With a lot of consumer sentiment determined by partisanship, your outlook on the market may be skewed by your politics. That’s one of the reasons I thought it was worth sharing this article on real estate markets after presidential elections. The author, Sacramento Appraiser Ryan Lundquist, looks at sales volume, and prices in the year after an election in Sacramento County.
While Maui is its own market, Maui and California have historically seen some overlap in market trajectories. Ryan also includes some data points directly relevant to our local market, including mortgage and Federal Funds rates. If you are looking for any strong signals from the data, you will be disappointed as the markets after elections vary. We shall see what 2025 brings. We will continue to provide Maui Real Estate Market Updates on this blog.
A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post
