It’s time to check in again on the Maui Real Estate market. Update Q2 2024 Vol. 2 looks at market activity in June, including new listings, pending sales, closed transactions, and end-of-the-month inventory levels. We couldn’t post an update on the May activity, so we have some catching up to do. We are seeing signs of a shifting market, particularly with condos. Keep reading for all of the June numbers and a few thoughts on current market conditions.
June Market Activity
June New Listings
| June 2024 | June 2023 | June 2022 | June 2021 | June 2020 | June 17-19 Avg | |
| Homes | 102 | 83 | 144 | 136 | 132 | 128 |
| Condos | 128 | 121 | 144 | 176 | 181 | 158 |
June new home listings came in 22.9% higher than in June 2023. However, they were 20.3% lower than the average number of new home listings in June 2017, 2018, and 2019. June new condo listings increased 5.8% compared to June of 2023. The June 2024 numbers were 19% below the average for June 2017, 2018, and 2019.
June New Pending Sales
| June 2024 | June 2023 | June 2022 | June 2021 | June 2020 | June 17-19 Avg | |
| Homes | 52 | 68 | 73 | 95 | 94 | 90 |
| Condos | 52 | 89 | 84 | 192 | 87 | 120 |
New pending home sales in June were 23.5% below June 2023. This June’s numbers were 42.2% below the average for June 2017-2019. New Pending condo sales for June were 42.6% below June 2023. The 2024 numbers were 56.7% below the average number of new pending condo sales for June 17-June 19.
June Sales
| June 2024 | June 2023 | June 2022 | June 2021 | June 2020 | June 17-19 Avg. | |
| Homes | 62 | 78 | 83 | 110 | 70 | 95 |
| Condos | 56 | 91 | 148 | 239 | 66 | 131 |
June home sales were 20.5% lower than June 2023. This June was 34.7% below the average number of sales in June 2017, 2018, and 2019. June condo sales were 38.5% below last June. They were 57.3% below the average number of condo sales for June 2017, 2108, and 2019.
End of June Maui Home Inventory
The tables below show active and pending inventory by price point and community on the last day of June. Inventory from the last days of April and May are provided for context and to illustrate recent trends. Makawao and Wailuku’s pending sales continue to receive a boost from some longer-term developer contracts in Hoku’ula and Anuhea at Kehalani. Those developments also boost pending sales in the $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 price ranges.
| April 30, 2024 | May 31, 2024 | June 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$750,000 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 5 (+4) | 8 (-2) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 20 (+4) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 28 | 55 | 37 | 46 | 47 (+10) | 45 (-1) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 45 | 24 | 45 | 31 | 56 (+11) | 26 (-5) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 38 | 16 | 44 | 11 | 42 (-2) | 11 |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 50 | 6 | 46 | 10 | 55 (+9) | 6 (-4) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 47 | 5 | 49 | 6 | 46 (-3) | 6 |
| $10,000,000-$19,999,999 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 19 (+5) | 0 |
| $20,000,000+ | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 (+1) | 0 |
| Totals | 235 | 132 | 259 | 130 | 294 (+35) | 122 (-8) |
| April 30,2024 | May 31, 2024 | June 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Haiku | 15 | 9 | 24 | 11 | 22 (-2) | 10 (-1) |
| Hana | 12 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 17 (+2) | 0 |
| Ka’anapali | 16 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 19 (+5) | 1 (-2) |
| Kahului | 6 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 12 (+2) | 10 (+3) |
| Kapalua | 13 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 2 (-1) |
| Kihei | 41 | 13 | 35 | 22 | 41 (+6) | 14 (-8) |
| Kula | 23 | 13 | 28 | 13 | 35 (+7) | 12 (-1) |
| Lahaina | 22 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 26 (+3) | 2 (-2) |
| Makawao | 11 | 24 | 13 | 17 | 13 | 22 (+5) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 15 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 8 (+4) |
| Pukalani | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 (-1) |
| Spreckelsville/Paia | 11 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 13 (-1) | 0 |
| Wailea | 15 | 6 | 21 | 3 | 18 (-3) | 3 |
| Wailuku | 16 | 42 | 23 | 35 | 38 (+15) | 32 (+9) |
Five Notable Things About the June Maui Home Inventory
Active home listings on June 30th increased 13.5% over May 31st. Pending home sales fell 6.2% between the end of May and the last day of June.
Of the nine price ranges we track, active inventory increased in six ranges, decreased in two, and remained the same in one. The price ranges between $1,000,000 and $1,999,999 saw notable increases, as did the under $750,000 price range and the $10,000,000 to $20,000,000 range. The $2,000,000 to $2,999,999 and $5,000,000 to $9,999,999 price ranges were the only ones where active listings decreased.
Month-to-month, new pending sales decreased in four of the price ranges we track, increased in one, and remained unchanged in four. Notably, two price ranges with unchanged pending sales remained at zero. The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred between $1,500,000 and $1,999,999, with $3,000,000 to $4,999,999, which was just behind. $750,000-$999,999 was the only price range where pending sales increased.
Looking at the active inventory at the community level, seven increased between the end of May and the last day of June, three decreased, and four remained the same. Wailuku, Kula, Kihei and Ka’anapali all saw big increases. Wailea and Haiku had the biggest drop in active listings.
End of the month, pending sales decreased in seven communities, decreased in four, and remained unchanged in three. Kihei’s pending home sales had the most notable drop since the end of May. Wailuku had the biggest increase in pending sales over that time.
End of June Maui Condo Inventory
The tables below show active and pending condo sales by price point and community on the last days of April, May, and June. Wailea and the price points between $1,500,000 and $5,000,000 received a slight boost in pending sales due to long-term developer contracts at La’i Loa. As of the end of June, sales for approximately sixty of the seventy-five units in the development had closed.
| April 30, 2024 | May 31, 2024 | June 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| <$250,000 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4 (-2) | 1 |
| $250,000-$499,999 | 24 | 12 | 30 | 8 | 41 (+11) | 5 (-3) |
| $500,000-$749,999 | 68 | 28 | 96 | 27 | 106 (+10) | 28 (+1) |
| $750,000-$999,999 | 103 | 25 | 144 | 13 | 155 (+11) | 14 (+1) |
| $1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 106 | 19 | 129 | 12 | 127 (-2) | 13 (+1) |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 61 | 16 | 62 | 18 | 66 (+4) | 11 (-7) |
| $2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 58 | 16 | 56 | 11 | 59 (+3) | 13 (+2) |
| $3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 29 | 8 | 33 | 7 | 31 (-2) | 6 (-1) |
| $5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 19 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 22 (+1) | 3 (+1) |
| $10,000,000+ | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 9 (+1) | 0 |
| Totals | 479 | 128 | 585 | 99 | 620 (+35) | 94 (-5) |
| April 30, 2024 | May 31, 2024 | June 30, 2024 | ||||
| Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
| Ka’anapali | 79 | 8 | 84 | 7 | 87 (+3) | 10 (+3) |
| Kahului | 15 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 11 (-1) | 3 (+1) |
| Kapalua | 27 | 6 | 36 | 2 | 36 | 2 |
| Kihei | 161 | 34 | 217 | 34 | 234 (+17) | 36 (+2) |
| Lahaina | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 (+2) | 0 |
| Ma’alaea | 18 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 19 (+3) | 1 (-1) |
| Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 103 | 29 | 127 | 14 | 131 (+4) | 14 |
| Pukalani | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Wailea | 64 | 36 | 74 | 29 | 80 (+6) | 20 (-9) |
| Wailuku | 8 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 8 (-1) |
Five Notable Things About the End of June Maui Condo Inventory
The number of active condo listings increased 5.6% between the end of May and the last day of June. Since we didn’t do a post last month, it is worth noting that the end-of-June inventory is 29.4% higher than the April 30th condo inventory. Pending condo inventory dropped 5.1% from the end of May to the last day of June. It is down 26.6% from the 30th of April.
Between May 31st and June 30th, active inventory increased at seven out of ten price points, while inventory decreased at the remaining three. The biggest increases in inventory occurred in the price points between $250,000 and $999,999. The changes tended to be moderate for the price points where inventory decreased.
Pending condo sales increased at five price points, decreased at three and remained unchanged at two. For the price points where pending sales increased, the changes were moderate. The biggest decrease in pending sales occurred between $1,500,000 and $1,999,999.
At a community level, active inventory increased in seven communities, decreased in one, and remained the same in three. Kihei saw the biggest inventory growth, followed by Wailea. Only Kahului saw a decrease in active listings.
Pending listings increased in three communities, decreased in three, and remained the same in four. The communities that saw increases, including Kihei and Ka’anapali, showed modest gains. Wailea’s pending sales decreased more than those of any other community. Most of that can be attributed to the five long-term sales contracts that closed at La’i Loa.
Market Observations
Let’s start with condos. The condo market faced growing headwinds throughout the winter and into April. Reduced tourism, decreased rental returns, extensive assessments for capital improvements at some notable condo developments, a changing insurance market that led to increased maintenance fees and/or special assessments, and the discussion of short-term rental restrictions all dampened buyer sentiment. In some ways, the market showed surprising resiliency. There was a shift in early May when the Mayor proposed overturning the Minatoya List.
This new legislation would prohibit vacation rentals in condo developments with apartment zoning. This would impact over 6,500 condos on Maui with additional condos impacted on Molokai. The announcement led to an immediate shift in the market. Condo inventory increased 22% between the end of April and the last day of May. It jumped another 5.6% by the end of June. The increase stems from an increasing number of owners deciding to sell and a much smaller pool of buyers.
While most of the new and existing Minatoya condo inventory sits, some sellers are cutting prices to find the market. In some cases, sellers are dropping prices over 15% below comparable sales from earlier this year to find buyers.
Non-Minatoya condos are not seeing that type of downward price pressure, but they are not immune to the slow market conditions. Hotel-zoned condos and condos that already prohibited short-term rentals are seeing more buyer interest than Minatoya Condos, but they aren’t exactly flying off the shelves. This is a very quiet Maui condo market period.
The home market is also quiet. June’s new pending sales were slower than any June in the previous seven years. It is quieter across most price ranges with only the $750,000-$999,999 price range seeing an uptick in pending sales.
The $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 price range has the most activity. That price range was particularly busy in the winter and early spring. Displaced Lahaina residents with insurance money were purchasing homes in other areas of the island. That pool of buyers appears to be getting smaller and the market a little less competitive. Homes that would have received multiple offers within a few days earlier in the year are now going under contract in a week to ten days. Anuhea at Kehalani is starting to see more listings go to the MLS instead of being reserved during the lottery.
It appears that we are mirroring national trends of slowing market activity. High prices, high rates, and low affordability are leading to less home demand.
A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post
