Maui Real Estate Market Update Q3 2025 Vol. 1

Welcome to our update on real estate market activity on Maui in July. If you are new to these posts, please note that our statistics differ from those of the local Realtor Association. We exclude the islands of Molokai and Lanai. We focus more on pending sales and changes in inventory. While we still report actual sales, we believe that pending sales and active listings are better indicators of current market conditions.

We also don’t spend a lot of time talking about median prices. With our smaller sample sizes, we tend to see a lot more noise when it comes to shifts in median prices. All too often, people misconstrue changes in median prices as changes in market values.

If you are a long-time reader who may have missed last month’s post, we changed the format. We moved our market discussion to the front of the post, followed by the data. That way, if you just want a quick read on current market conditions, you can find that near the top of the post. Rest assured, data geeks, we are still providing the same data as before; you just need to scroll down more.

What We are Seeing in the Market

There were no seismic shifts in the Maui Real Estate market in July, as we continue a period of limited buyer demand and lower sales. Buyer demand for homes and condos increased compared to June 2025 and July 2024. That said, the number of new pending sales for homes and condos was still 27.5% and 52.8% respectively, below the July average between 2017 and 2019.

For the first time since October 2024, home inventory decreased this month, albeit just by one home. This comes after a couple of months of slowing inventory growth. It will be interesting to see home inventory trends for the rest of the year. Traditionally, some home sellers will use the fall as a time to rest listings during a quieter time of year for visitors.

Condo inventory continues to decline modestly. Anecdotally, the recent decrease in inventory appears to be primarily driven by cancelled listings. With continued uncertainty regarding the legislation that will phase out short-term rentals in apartment-zoned condos, some sellers are giving their condos a breather. I will discuss that legislation further below.

While condo inventory is down modestly, it remains very high relative to demand. That continues to cause price adjustments in the market. Condos potentially impacted by the Minatoya legislation are showing the most significant price adjustments; however, we are also seeing downward pressure on prices for hotel-zoned condos and those that already prohibit short-term rentals.

The trajectory of values in the home market is more of a mixed bag than condos. You can see modest price declines in Kihei where motivated sellers are having to adjust to stand out in a market with higher inventories. There are a number of communities where seller’s shooting for the moon are adjusting back to the market and some of the higher sales of the last 12-18 months are looking more like outliers. That said, the heterogeneity of our real estate inventory makes it hard to point out clear examples of declining values.

Maui’s market conditions reflect both national and local trends. Slower home sales volumes are the norm throughout the country due to current mortgage rates, general affordability challenges, lower consumer confidence, and constrained inventory. Nationally, condo sales are down and condo values are declining in many markets due to growing association costs, buyer preferences for single family, and comparatively high mortgage rates.

The condo market on Maui continues to feel the weight of the proposal to phase out short-term rentals in apartment-zoned buildings. We did take one step closer to a resolution on the bill in July. The legislation advanced out of committee in the Maui County Council by a 6-3 margin. As it stands, the bill would phase out short-term rentals in apartment-zoned condos in West Maui by January 1, 2029, and on the rest of the island by January 1, 2031.

The whole county council is scheduled to review the bill on September 23rd. Although it currently seems that the bill will pass, additional amendments to the bill are still possible. While all the county council members are members of the Land Use Committee that advanced the bill, it is also possible that some votes may switch their stance on the final vote. One member of the council voted yes with reservations, and another voted yes, expressing concerns about the high potential for litigation. It’s also not inconceivable that one of the no votes could become a yes.

What do current market conditions mean for buyers and sellers? Buyers will find that there is more opportunity to negotiate in this market. We are seeing more sellers make concessions and accepting offers below listing price. That said, don’t be surprised when you encounter sellers who are holding firm on prices. There is a pretty broad spectrum of seller motivation in this market. While competitive bidding is far less frequent than what we saw in 2021 and 2022, it still may happen with well priced properties, particularly under $1,000,000.

Sellers, we said it last month, but we will say it again, it’s not 2021/2022 anymore. The pool of buyers is significantly smaller, and a lot pickier. Deferred maintenance or dated finishing need to be accounted for in your sales price. Even well maintained properties, need to be priced appropriately. Reaching on your price will bring a lot fewer buyers through the door for showings. We work closely with our sellers to find a go-to-market price to help improve your chances for a quicker sale.

A Little Maui Beauty Before You Delve into the Data

July Maui Real Estate Market Activity

July New Inventory

July’s new home listings increased 8.2% compared to June of 2024, but they were 27.56% below the average number of new listings in July between 2017 and 2019. New condo listings were 14.2% below last July, and 23.9% below the July average between 2017 and 2019.

July New Pending Sales

July’s new pending home sales increased 26.9% compared to July 2024. That said, they were still 27.5% below the July average between 2017 and 2019. The number of condos that went pending during July increased by 22.9% compared to the same month last year, but they were still 52.8% below the July average between 2017 and 2019.

July Home and Condo Sales

The number of homes sold during July was 16% higher than in July 2024, but it was 37.6% below the July average for home sales from 2017 to 2019. The number of condos sold in July was 21.2% below last July and 60.6% below the July average between 2017 and 2019.

End of July Maui Home Inventory

Notable Numbers From the End of July Maui Home Inventory

The number of active home listings decreased by just one between the end of June and the end of July. That is less than a 1% change. That said, the number of active home listings at the end of July was 29.7% higher than on July 31, 2024.

Pending sales increased by eight homes or 8.1% between the end of June and the end of July. The number of pending sales on July 31, 2025 was 15.1% below the last day of June in 2024.

Looking at home inventory by price point, the $750,000 to $999,999 price range appears to be the most competitive for buyers. With six less active listings, and five more pending sales than the month prior, it is the only price range with fewer active listings than pending sales. Only the inventory priced below $750,000 is anywhere close to that ratio of active listings to pending listings with far more homes for sale than under contract in every other price point in the market.

Looking at the inventory by community, Kula continues to stand out for its decreasing inventory. From the end of April to the end of July, inventory in this Upcountry community shrank 34.3%. The number of homes under contract increased from 11 to 18 just between the end of June and the end of July.

Wailuku saw a sizable decrease in the number of homes under contract between the end of June and the end of July with eleven fewer pending sales. That stems from a high number of closed transactions and fewer properties going under contract. While the Kula numbers mentioned above appear to be something of a trend over the last few months, the Wailuku numbers may or may not have much significance. You can get month to month variability in sales on Maui with our lower sales volume.

End of July Maui Condo Inventory

Notable Numbers from the End of July Maui Condo Inventory

There was just a nominal change in the inventory of active condos for sale between the end of June and the last day of July. The number of active listing decreased from 815 to 811 or by just .5%. That said, the number of active listings at the end of July was 19.9% higher than on July 31, 2024.

The number of pending condo listings also remained relatively unchanged. The number of condos under contract decreased from 80 to 79 or just 1.25%. The 79 condos under contract on July 31st was two more than the 77 under contract on July 31st, 2024.

Looking at active condo inventory by price point, the trajectories of inventory varied pretty widely. Condos priced less than $500,000 saw a decent increase in active listings while condos priced between $750,000 and $1,500,000 saw a modest decrease in active listings as did the $3,000,000-$5,000,000 price range. Looking back a few months, these same price ranges show fluctuating inventory levels. That tells me it might be too early to read anything into the changes in the last month, but something to keep an eye on going forward.

Looking at active and pending inventory by communities, Wailuku had a notable increase in active listings and Ka’anapali saw an increase in pending listings. Both communities have seen fluctuating inventory over the last few months.

>> Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you have any questions, comments, or need assistance with buying or selling. Please let us know if there’s anything else you’d like us to cover in these posts. If you are interested in a particular community or neighborhood, we would be happy to put together a market analysis of that area for your review.