January 2026 Maui Statistics and Market Update

Sales are a lagging indicator of market conditions. This is something I learned early in my real estate career, and a guiding principle for how we present our market updates. Our stats have always focused on new pending sales and inventory levels. While we report sales volume, it isn’t at the top of the marquis in our stats. The January numbers are a good reason why.

If you looked at just the sales volume, you would think the year was off to a particularly slow start. The new pending sales suggest something else. Keep reading the January 2026 Maui Statistics and Market Update to see why.

What We Are Seeing In The Maui Market

The Maui Single Family Home Market

The single-family home market saw an uptick in activity at the start of 2026, following a quieter end to 2025. This is reflected in the new pending sales (better in 2026) and the low number of closed transactions (a slow end to 2025). The number of homes that went pending last month was the highest since January 2024.

While I can’t say definitively, the data points to increased affordability as a factor. Interest rates in January hovered just above 6%, and softening prices encouraged buyers. The largest increase in pending sales occurred in the $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 price range, a segment of the market where sellers have had to adjust their prices due to increased competition from rising inventory.

Another factor in the increased activity could be buyers’ use of grants from the Ho’okumu Hou program. This grant program, targeting first-time homebuyers impacted by the Lahaina Fires, provides up to $600,000 in assistance. The program rolled out in the fall, and some of those buyers should be out shopping for homes.

While the increase in activity compared to the last two years is a positive sign, it is worth providing some context. New pending sales remain well below pre-COVID levels for this time of year. Activity appears to be getting better, but it isn’t “normal.”

The Maui Condo Market

Like the single-family home market, the Maui Condo market also saw an uptick in activity after a similarly slow end to 2025. That said, the recovery has not been as robust as with the single-family homes. It’s busier than it was at the start of last year, but the passing of Bill 9, uncertainties around the creation of H3 and H4 zoning, and high ownership costs continue to weigh on the market.

One thing I have noticed is that we are seeing slightly more activity at the condo developments directly affected by Bill 9. It will be interesting to see the sales prices on these condos. Did sellers have to make significant concessions on price, or are buyers more attracted now that the question over whether the bill would pass has been answered? We will monitor sales over the next couple of months to provide insights.

The Maui Luxury Market

While the home and condo markets saw overall activity increase, the luxury market was not a significant driver of that increase. Both luxury home and luxury condo buyer activity were slower than in January 2025.

Only three homes priced $3,000,000 or above went under contract in January 2026. That is well behind the start of last year, when nine homes priced over $3,000,000 went under contract. This year’s activity was spread throughout the island, with homes in Spreckelsville, Ka’anapali, and Maui Meadows all going under contract.

Seven condos priced $2,000,000 or above went under contract in January on Maui. Last January, twelve condos went under contract. The lion’s share of this January’s luxury buyer activity occurred in South Maui, with five Wailea Condos going under contract and one Kihei Condo. The lone West Maui condo to go under contract was in Alaeloa in the Napili area.

What does it all mean for Buyers and Sellers?

Buyers are in a stronger position in the marketplace, with more room to negotiate on transactions. In general, you are seeing a widening gap between asking prices and sales prices. That said, buyers should be aware that this is not universally true with all properties. We are still seeing a handful of well-priced properties selling above the asking price. The extent to which prices are declining varies significantly by area, price point, and property type. We are also seeing some buyers in the market submit offers at pre-2020 prices. While prices are softening, we aren’t seeing that drastic a retreat.

Sellers, as the paragraph above suggests, market conditions are more challenging. Buyers have more choices, and some of your competitors are motivated. Overpriced properties are sitting idle and risk becoming even more overpriced if your segment of the market is particularly soft. If you aren’t getting much attention from buyers, it is usually a strong signal from the market that you didn’t hit the mark on pricing.

If you have a home with deferred maintenance or dated finishes, you should address them before going to market if you have the means; factor those items into your price; or offer a credit to buyers to address them. Buyers are more selective these days and less willing to overlook potential issues.

If you are considering buying or selling a home on Maui, give us a call or send us a message. We would welcome the opportunity to discuss market conditions specific to your interests.

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January 2026 Market Activity

I just wanted to provide some background on how we are presenting the numbers this year. In addition to the January numbers, we provide historical January numbers for context. That includes the last three Januaries, January 2021 for comparison with a truly high-volume market, and the average of the three January months between 2017 and 2019 for comparison with “normal” pre-COVID market conditions.

New Listings

New home listings in January were 7.8% higher than in January 2025, but 20.3% below the January average between 2017 and 2019. New condo listings were 14.3% below January 2025 levels and 30.1% below the January average for 2017-2019.

New Pending Sales

The number of homes that went under contract in January was 60.5% higher than last January but still 37.8% below the January average from 2017 to 2019. The number of condos that went under contract increased by 9.6% compared to January 2025, but was still 55.8% below the January Average from 2017 to 2019.

Sold

The number of homes sold in January 2026 was 14.2% lower than in January 2025 and 30.4% below the January average for 2017-2019. The number of condos sold in January was 22.6% below January 2025 and 64% below the January average for 2017-2019.

End of January Maui Home Inventory

Notable Numbers and Observations From the End of January Home Inventory

The inventory of active homes for sale increased by less than half a percent (2 homes) between New Year’s Eve and January 31st. While the December pending sales total was the lowest of 2025, the January number rebounded to the second-highest monthly total in the last twelve months. Pending home sales increased 28.4% (25 homes) between the end of December and the last day of January.

Looking at active listings by price point, there were notable decreases in homes priced below $750,000 and between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999. The four active listings under $750,000 was the lowest end-of-month total since May 31st, 2025. The $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 has seen three consecutive months of declining active listings after a steady increase during the first ten months of 2025.

Two things stood out when looking at the month-to-month changes in pending listings. The $1,000,000-$1,499,999 price range saw a significant increase in pending sales, marking the highest end-of-month pending sales totals since October 2024. This part of the market has seen more sellers adjusting their prices. The combination of lower prices and rates has increased buyer activity. Also notable was the increase in pending sales in all price points below $3,000,000.

Looking at active listings by community, Kihei and Wailuku had notable declines. Both communities have seen more sellers adjusting their prices recently. Wailea saw a bump in active listings. Most of that was due to new listings coming to market for the winter buyer’s season. Hana also had a notable bump, though half of it was from previous listings returning to market.

When reviewing the month-to-month changes in pending listings by community, the biggest gains were in Wailuku, Kahului, Kihei, and Kula. The resort communities were notable for a lack of pending sales and low overall pending sales. There were just three pending sales between Ka’anapali, Wailea, and Kapalua. Only Ka’anapali saw a month-to-month increase in pendings.

End of January Maui Condo Inventory

Notable Numbers and Observations From the End of January Maui Condo Inventory

The number of active condo listings decreased by just two between December 31st and the end of January. That’s less than a quarter of a percent. Current inventory levels remain very high.

At the end of January, pending inventory increased by 19 over the end of December. While this is a 27.14% increase, it is a rebound from the lowest end-of-month total in 2025.

Looking at active inventory by price point, I can’t say there are any grand epiphanies, but some segments of the market with higher inventory are seeing modest decreases. The $250,000-$499,999 price range recorded its second consecutive month of declining end-of-month inventory, following five consecutive months of increases.

Looking at end-of-month pending sales, all price ranges between $750,000 and $5,000,000 increased compared with December 31st numbers. This is due to seasonal second home buying.

Looking at the January end-of-month inventory, Ka’anapali continues to see an increase in active listings. This is the third straight month of increased listings. The remaining resort and second-home markets were flat or saw a modest decline in active listings.

Looking at Pending listings by community, the Napili, Kahana, and Honokowai area was the only second home market where pending listings decreased between the end of January and December 31st. Most of the other markets saw modest gains.

>> Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you have any questions, comments, or need assistance with buying or selling. We welcome feedback on these posts and any suggestions on topics you would like us to cover on the blog.