Category: Maui Real Estate Statistics
This is the second of our series that provides neighborhood and community-level market updates. Today’s post looks at Paia town, where The Maui Real Estate Team office is located. This North Shore Beach Town offers access to great beaches and water sports, good shops and restaurants, the charm of an old Plantation town, and a little bit of Bohemia. This post looks at market activity in 2023 and the year to date in 2024.
Recent Paia Market Activity
It is worth noting that our MLS groups Spreckelsville and Paia together in the MLS. We already posted on Spreckelsville market activity, so this post focuses on Paia and Kuau.
The map above shows recent sales and active listings in Paia. 2024 Sales are represented by red pins, 2023 sales are represented by orange pins, and active listings are indicated by green pins. You can find out more about the properties by clicking on the pins.
Notes on 2023 Paia Real Estate Market Activity
In 2023, 13 homes were sold in the Paia and Kuau Areas. That is the lowest annual total since 2008, when ten homes were sold. It is worth noting that there were other years with slower sales totals. For example, in 2019, only 14 homes sold.
Sales volume in Paia is based on both demand and the number and composition of homes sold. That explains why you can have a slow year like 2019. There just wasn’t much to buy. Last year was a slow year island wide for sales so it is not a big surprise that we saw such low sales volumes. However, the number and composition of the homes listed did not help. Only 3 of the homes sold closed for less than $1,000,000. Some of this is due to price appreciation. Some of that is due to just fewer people listing their homes at lower price points.
Skill Village was the busiest neighborhood in Paia for sales activity. Kuau Bayview, North Shore Village, and Kuau Point neighborhoods had two sales each during 2023.
The median price of the homes sold in Paia and Kuau in 2023 was $1,350,000, and the average price was $1,404,000. Again, this speaks partly to the scarcity of homes for sale under $1,000,000. The highest sale in the area during 2023 was $2,572,603 for a 5-bedroom, 3-and-a-half-bath residential condo on Kuau Point. The lowest sale was $775,000 for a 3-bedroom, 3-bath home in Skill Village.
One condo was sold at Kuau Plaza in 2023. The one-bedroom unit sold for $800,000, a new record for the condo development just down the road from Mama’s Fish House.
Notes on 2024 Year-to-Date Paia Real Estate Activity
As of May 1, five homes have been sold in Paia and Kuau during 2024. This is ahead of the 2023 pace when only 2 homes had sold in the area by May 1.
While the sample size is small, no Paia neighborhood has more than one sale in 2024. There is one sale each in Kuau Bayview, Skill Village, and Kuau Point. There is also one oceanfront sale on Tavares Bay.
The median price of the homes sold for the year-to-date is $1,875,000, and the average sales price for the five homes is $2,573,000. The highest sale thus far this year is $5,200,000 for a four-bedroom, three-and-a-half-bath home with 3,026 square feet of living space on a 17,289 square-foot lot. The lowest-priced sale thus far is $902,000 for a 2 bedroom/1 bathroom home with 892 square-feet of living space on a 7,000 square foot lot in the Skill Village neighborhood. It is the only sale under $1,000,000 for the year-to-date.
Thus far this year, one condo has sold in Kuau Plaza. The one-bedroom, one-bathroom unit closed for $838,500.
Outlook for the Paia Real Estate Market for the Rest of 2024
It’s hard to say how the rest of the year will unfold for the Paia Real Estate Market. Unpredictability is the rule in this day and age. A few factors may impact the market.
At the top of the list is inventory. While the ten homes and one condo listed seem like a decent supply for the market, it is a little tighter when you scratch the surface. With three of the listings, the owner reserves the right to refuse offers on individual properties and sell them instead as part of a portfolio sale that includes the Paia Inn. Of course, there are also no active listings priced below $1,000,000. The lowest-priced home on the market is $1,449,500. Buyers looking to get a foot in the door in Paia will be depending on inventory not listed currently.
Demand throughout the rest of the year also remains a question mark. Interest rates remain over 7%, which reduces affordability. Visitor numbers on the island remain lower in the aftermath of the fire. We are also getting closer to what will likely be a tumultuous election. Will that cause some buyers to hit pause on their purchase plans?
While Kuau Plaza usually only generates one or two sales a year, proposed legislation by the Mayor of Maui could significantly impact this small North Shore condo development. The apartment-zoned condo is on the Mintoya List. Condos on the list can do short-term rentals. However, the Mayor’s new legislation would eliminate vacation rentals in apartment-zoned condominiums. If the bill passes, it could decrease demand and increase supply.
Need Assistance in Paia or Kuau?
With our office in town, The Maui Real Estate Team knows the Paia and Kuau real estate market well. We keep a close eye on the current inventory and ears to the ground for potential off-market properties. Buyers can check out the current Paia Real Estate listings on MauiRealEstate.com. Sellers and buyers are also welcome to contact us to set up a consultation with one of our Brokers or agents.
It’s been a while since we did a more granular community-level update on the blog. There is no better place to start than Spreckelsville, one of our office’s favorite neighborhoods. Our broker and one of our agents are long-time residents of the community and know it as well as anyone in the business.
Spreckelsville is located between the Kahului airport and Paia town. It is Maui’s best neighborhood for wind and water sports and is home to the Maui Country Club. There is even bike path access to the shops, restaurants, and wellness-related amenities of Paia. The fantastic lifestyle offered makes it one of the more low-key luxury communities on Maui.
Recent Spreckelsville Market Activity
This post looks at recent market activity in the neighborhood including recent sales and current inventory.
The map above shows recent sales and active listings in Spreckelsville. Sales are represented by red pins and active listings are indicated by green pins. You can find out more about the properties by clicking on the pins.
Notes on Spreckelsville Market Activity
The 2023 calendar year is the first and only year with no recorded sales in Spreckelsville on the MLS, which has data going back to 2002. Other low sale years include 2010, with one MLS sale, and 2018, with two sales. The lack of sales reflects both limited inventory in the neighborhood and a quieter year of market activity overall on the island.
There was one off the MLS sale, and it was a big one. 580 Stable Road closed for $16,000,000. This two-acre beachfront property with a home, pool, and tennis court is the third-highest-ever sales price in Spreckelsville.
The first four months of 2024 saw increased activity with three home sales. The highest-priced sale was at 477 Laulea Place. The house and cottage on an approximately 35,000-square-foot oceanfront lot sold for $11,500,000. While it was reported on the MLS, it was an off market sale.
The other sale worth noting from early 2024 is 2365 Waipua Street. This 4,004 square-foot home with a pool in the Sprecks V subdivision is notable for two reasons. First, it is the highest sale price in this subdivision by a good margin. It closed for $3,175,000. The previous high sale closed for $2,300,000 albeit that was before COVID-19 in January 2020. It is also the first sale in this part of Sprecks since 2021.
Sprecks V used to see more market activity than any other part of Sprecks. It would appear that as Sprecks’ appeal increases, turnover in the lowest-priced part of Spreckelsville decreases. Then again, that may be a reflection of the small sample size. We shall see what future inventory brings.
Current Sprecks Inventory
The inventory of Spreckelsville Homes for Sale is limited at this time. The only home on the MLS is 22 Cane Place. Listed by Martin Lenny from our office, the five-bedroom, five-bathroom home has 3,291 square feet of living space. It is situated on just over 2 acres dotted with Coconut Palms, Monkey Pod Trees, Mango, Papaya, and Plumeria. It has a gated pathway that it shares with other homes in the Kai Holu subdivision that leads to the beach access for Sugar Cove. It is offered for $7,250,000.
Sprecks is a community with a higher-than-usual percentage of unlisted and off-market sales. Billy and Martin always have their ears to the ground for opportunities outside the MLS.
Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024
After the quiet of 2023, the last few months marked a resurgence for the Spreckelsville Real Estate Market. That said, we need to see an influx of new inventory or unlisted sales to see the sales volumes of 2021 or 2022. This is common for a neighborhood where scarcity of inventory tends to suppress transaction volume. If you are interested in buying or selling in the neighborhood, give us a call or send us a message.
Interested in Sprecks?
It’s that time again. This post takes a look back at real estate activity in Maui during the month of October. It includes data on new inventory, new pending sales and closed transactions. We also look at end of the month inventory levels by price point and community. After digesting the numbers, I give a few thoughts on the market and specifically the impacts of the fire and high interest rates.
Before we get to the numbers, I am still working on a permanent title for what was formerly known as the Maui Market Musings. This month’s title is a particularly straight forward description. Consider it a milquetoast Maui market musings. Now, that’s some alliteration. On to the numbers…
Table of Contents
October Market Activity
October 2023 | October 2022 | October 2021 | October 2020 | October 2019 | October 2018 | |
Homes | 77 | 81 | 97 | 103 | 137 | 127 |
Condos | 97 | 92 | 183 | 181 | 169 | 176 |
New home listings for October are down about 5% compared to October of 2022. October 2023 new listings are down 44% and 39% respectively compared to October of 2019 and 2018.
New condo inventory is up 5% during the last month compared to October of 2022. It is still well below a “normal” October coming in 43% and 45% below October of 2019 and 2018 respectively.
October 2023 | October 2022 | October 2021 | October 2020 | October 2019 | October 2018 | |
Homes | 49 | 76 | 106 | 92 | 97 | 83 |
Condos | 57 | 84 | 129 | 120 | 137 | 130 |
October of 2023 proved to be a quiet month for new pending home sales. Last month’s numbers came in 38% below October of 2022. They came in 49% below October of 2019 and 41% below October of 2018.
New Pending Condo sales fell 33% compared to October of 2022. The number of new pending condo sales came in 59% and 57% below October of 2019 and 2018 respectively.
October 2023 | October 2022 | October 2021 | October 2020 | October 2019 | October 2018 | |
Homes | 44 | 76 | 106 | 92 | 97 | 83 |
Condos | 60 | 84 | 129 | 120 | 137 | 130 |
The 44 homes that sold in October of 2023 is 43% below last October. The number of sold homes is 55% below October of 2019 and 47% below October of 2018.
The number of condos sold this October came in 29% below last October. The 60 condos sold last month is 57% below October of 2019 and 54% below October of 2018.
End of October Maui Home Inventory
The charts below show active and pending home inventory by price points and community at the end of October. The end of September and the end of August numbers are provided for additional context.
8/31/23 | 9/30/23 | 10/31/23 | ||||
Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
<750,000 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 (+2) | 6 (-3) |
$750,000-$999,999 | 17 | 21 | 18 | 13 | 22 (+4) | 16 (+3) |
$1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 34 | 45 | 40 | 38 | 44 (+4) | 39 (+1) |
$1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 21 | 18 | 28 | 12 | 29 (+1) | 14 (+2) |
$2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 25 | 13 | 31 | 9 | 35 (+4) | 7 (-2) |
$3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 24 | 8 | 26 | 7 | 26 | 7 |
$5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 29 | 8 | 31 | 4 | 31 | 4 |
$10,000,000-$19,999,999 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
$20,000,000+ | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Totals | 173 | 123 | 199 | 92 | 214 (+15) | 93 (+1) |
8/31/23 | 9/30/23 | 10/31/23 | ||||
Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
Haiku | 17 | 7 | 20 | 10 | 24 (+4) | 7 (-3) |
Hana | 12 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 11 (-1) | 1 |
Ka’anapali | 8 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 0 (-2) |
Kahului | 5 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 7 (+2) | 6 (-2) |
Kapalua | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 (+1) |
Kihei | 16 | 18 | 27 | 13 | 31 (+4) | 11 (-2) |
Kula | 17 | 12 | 25 | 10 | 26 (+1) | 8 (-2) |
Lahaina | 13 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 5 (+4) |
Makawao | 14 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 16 (+2) |
Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 5 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 3 (+2) |
Pukalani | 8 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 1 (-1) |
Sprecks/Paia/Kuau | 8 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 1 (-1) |
Wailea | 19 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 20 | 4 |
Wailuku | 13 | 33 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 25 (+2) |
Five Notable Things About the End of October Home Inventory
- Active inventory of homes for sale increased by 7.5% between the end of September and the end of August. The increase in inventory appears to be less from new listings and more from relatively low buyer activity. The number of pending home sales increased by just one between the end of September and the end of October.
- Looking at active home inventory by price point, all price points below $3,000,000 saw inventory increase. Active inventory was unchanged at all price points above $3,000,000.
- Pending home sales increased at three price points, decreased at two price points and remained unchanged at all price points over $3,000,000.
- Looking at active inventory by community, the vast majority of districts did not see any change in active listings. It increased in four communities. Kihei and Haiku saw the biggest increase. Active inventory decreased in just one community.
- The pending home sales by community proved to be more of a mixed bag. Pending sales decreased in seven communities. The number of pending home sales remained unchanged in two communities, and pending sales increased in four districts. It is notable that the Lahaina district saw the biggest increase in pending home sales with four. To be clear, all of those homes are located in areas outside the burn zone. The majority are in the Launiupoko neighborhood.
End of October Maui Condo Inventory
The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. It is worth noting that the Wailea continues to a see big bump in pending sales due to condo under contract in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. The Lai’i Loa bump also impacts pending sales numbers in the $1,500,000 to $4,000,000 price range. That said, the bump is a little less pronounced as the development’s first nine sales recorded on the last two days of October.
8/31/2023 | 9/30/23 | 10/31/2023 | ||||
Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
<$250,000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 (-2) |
$250,000-$499,999 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 11 | 13 (-1) | 10 (-1) |
$500,000-$749,999 | 29 | 35 | 32 | 24 | 35 (+3) | 19 (-5) |
$750,000-$999,999 | 25 | 24 | 40 | 10 | 51 (+11) | 17 (+7) |
$1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 29 | 16 | 37 | 12 | 44 (+7) | 12 |
$1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 21 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 31 (+2) | 25 (-5) |
$2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 17 | 37 | 20 | 39 | 19 (-1) | 33 (-6) |
$3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 18 (+6) | 15 (-2) |
$5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 (+1) | 0 |
$10,000,000+ | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 (+2) | 1 (+1) |
Totals | 163 | 163 | 192 | 145 | 222 (+30) | 132 (-12) |
8/31/2023 | 9/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | ||||
Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
Ka’anapali | 22 | 7 | 34 | 9 | 40 (+6) | 7 (-2) |
Kahului | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 (-4) |
Kapalua | 14 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 12 (+1) | 2 (+1) |
Kihei | 51 | 40 | 64 | 25 | 67 (+3) | 27 (+2) |
Lahaina | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ma’alaea | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 (+4) | 1 (-3) |
Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 41 | 19 | 47 | 13 | 60 (+13) | 16 (+3) |
Wailea | 20 | 81 | 26 | 79 | 30 (+4) | 70 (-9) |
Wailuku | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 5 (+2) | 8 (-1) |
Five Notable Things about the End of October Maui Condo Inventory
- Active condo inventory increased almost 16% between the last day of September and the last day of October. Pending condo sales fell just over 9% between the end of September and the end of October.
- Active condo inventory increased in all but three price points. Inventory decreased between $250,000 and $499,999 and the $2,000,000-$2,999,999 price range. There continues to be no inventory under $250,000.
- Pending condo sales decreased in all but four price points. The only increases in pending sales occurred between $750,000 and $999,999 and over $10,000,000. Pending sales remained unchanged between $1,000,000 and $1,499,999. There continue to be no condos under contract between $5,000,000 and $9,999,999.
- Looking at active condo inventory by district, almost all districts saw an increase in active listings between the last day of September and the last day of October. Ka’anapali and the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai area experienced the biggest increase. Kahului condo inventory remained unchanged. Lahaina also remained unchanged with no active listings. All condo complexes in Lahaina were impacted in some way by the August fire.
- Pending condo sales decreased in five districts between the last day of September and the last day of October. Wailea saw the biggest decrease with nine fewer pending sales. That matches the nine sales recorded at La’i Loa. Pending sales increased modestly in Kapalua, Kihei and Napili, Kahana and Honokowai.
Market Thoughts
Needless to say, it was a quiet month of October for the Maui Real Estate market. The market is feeling the combined effects of both the aftermath of the August fires and higher interest rates.
You can see the impact of the fires looking at the data for West Maui. Condo inventory in Ka’anapali is up 82% between the end of August and the end of October. I don’t have any good data on historical monthly condo inventory in Ka’anapali to compare current inventory to normal pre-Covid inventory. That said, the 40 condos listed at the end of October is the highest monthly total that I have for Ka’anapali since I started tracking the data in May of 2022. The previous high is 27 active listings in November of 2022.
The shift in active Ka’anapali Condo listings isn’t the only notable number from the end of October West Maui inventory.
- Napili, Kahana and Honokowai condo and home inventory is up 47% and 100% respectively since the end of August.
- Ka’anapali pending home sales went from 5 at the end of August down to 0 at the end of October.
- As mentioned above, the one outlier is the pending home sales in the Lahaina district. The numbers are up slightly from the end of August.
- Kapalua, the area on the West Side furthest from the Lahaina fire, hasn’t seen the inventory shifts that the rest of the West side is seeing.
It’s not a surprise that we are seeing an increase in active listings in Ka’anapali. The area was closed for tourism until November 8th. There are still a huge number of residents displaced by the fires living in the hotels. As primarily a second home market, fewer tourists mean fewer potential buyers. The question is whether this market continues to be impacted by its proximity to the fires even as more visitors return down the road.
The fire isn’t the only reason for slower market activity on island. Rates that hit as high as 8% in October deterred buyers. While rates have since come down from their recent peak, you can see the recent impact of high rates in the October closed transactions. A whopping 63.3% of the condos purchases and 50% of the home sales were cash. That is the highest percentage of cash transactions for either property type this year. This is a reflection of more financed buyers being priced out of the market.
One other sign of the impact of high interest rates is evident with something we aren’t seeing in the numbers. As mentioned in our last market update, we attended an event sponsored by the local Realtor’s association. One of the speakers was a broker from Paradise, California. She talked about the big increase in sales activities in communities close to Paradise within a couple of months of the fires. The surge stemmed from Paradise residents using insurance proceeds to buy new homes. As the numbers above show, we just aren’t seeing any big surge in pending sales.
While I know there are people on island who have purchased replacement properties with their insurance proceeds, many others don’t have enough to buy or at least buy what they want or need. The high interest rates are compounding the already high prices.
One last note, It still feels awkward writing about the fires and the impact on the real estate market in more abstract terms. There is a very real human component to our current market. In addition to the insurance challenges, many island residents continue to struggle to find long term rentals in the aftermath of the fire. If you are a Maui Property owner who has long term housing available, please sign up online at Maui Hale Match. If you are looking for other ways to help people impacted by the fires, check out our How to Help Maui post.
A Little Maui Beauty to Brighten This Post
Questions, Comments, Need Help Buying or Selling?
It’s been a while since we posted one of our Maui market musings. In light of the fires on island in early August, market discussions felt inappropriate. The human impacts far outweighed discussion of inventory and sales volume. It’s been over two months now and feelings still remain raw on island. That said, housing is a huge part of this tragedy. The state of the market merits discussion for our clients.
You will also note that this post is not titled Maui Market Musings and some Roman Numeral. While that post title fulfilled my fondness for alliteration, the subject matter wasn’t super intuitive to the casual reader. We are still ruminating on a new title moving forward, but we are going with the basic October 2023 Maui Market Update for this version.
Table of Contents
August and September Market Activity
August 2023 | August 2022 | August 2021 | August 2020 | August 2019 | August 2018 | |
Homes | 46 | 103 | 133 | 109 | 108 | 123 |
Condos | 71 | 100 | 159 | 275 | 133 | 143 |
September 2023 | September 2022 | September 2021 | September 2020 | September 2019 | September 2018 | |
Homes | 92 | 82 | 130 | 131 | 122 | 107 |
Condos | 98 | 74 | 144 | 180 | 174 | 117 |
Monthly new inventory for the year was well below last year prior to the fires on the island. That said, it dropped that much further in August. With the situation on the island, many potential sellers delayed the sale of their property or in some cases opted not to sell for the time being.
New listings in September picked up. While still below pre-Covid levels, September Home and Condo listings exceeded last year. That would seem to suggest that more sellers deferred their listings for a month rather than opting not to sell.
August 2023 | August 2022 | August 2021 | August 2020 | August 2019 | August 2018 | |
Homes | 47 | 27 | 14 | 48 | 23 | 34 |
Condos | 41 | 19 | 18 | 54 | 18 | 19 |
September 2023 | September 2022 | September 2021 | September 2020 | September 2019 | September 2018 | |
Homes | 24 | 35 | 22 | 14 | 30 | 37 |
Condos | 22 | 25 | 14 | 51 | 26 | 34 |
We don’t usually include cancellations in these numbers, but August wasn’t a usual month. Cancellations spiked for a variety of reasons. Homes and condos listed in Lahaina may have been destroyed or rendered inaccessible. Listings in West Maui and Kula cancelled due to limited access and circumstances. Some sellers pulled their homes off the market to house displaced families.
September cancellations came in relatively low. As the start of one of our shoulder seasons, it is typically a month with a relatively high number of cancelled listings. I imagine the lower cancellations may just be due to the fact that the base level of inventory is low. A few of the August cancellations may also have been planned for September only for sellers to accelerate their timelines in light of the situation.
August 2023 | August 2022 | August 2021 | Auguste 2020 | August 2019 | Auguest 2018 | |
Homes | 57 | 63 | 125 | 104 | 84 | 89 |
Condos | 63 | 105 | 150 | 112 | 131 | 124 |
September 2023 | September 2022 | September 2021 | September 2020 | September 2019 | September 2018 | |
Homes | 43 | 66 | 108 | 110 | 84 | 64 |
Condos | 48 | 84 | 136 | 123 | 131 | 114 |
August new pending home sales dipped modestly compared to August of 2022. On the other hand, Condo pending sales dipped substantially below the August 2022 numbers. September home and condo pendings both experienced substantial drops compared to both September of 2022 and Pre-Covid era Septembers. The September 2023 condo numbers are particularly striking coming in 54% and 63% lower than 2018 and 2019 respectively.
August 2023 | August 2022 | August 2021 | August 2020 | August 2019 | August 2018 | |
Homes | 57 | 82 | 120 | 92 | 97 | 98 |
Condos | 97 | 104 | 187 | 111 | 119 | 149 |
September 2023 | September 2022 | September 2021 | September 2020 | September 2019 | September 2018 | |
Homes | 66 | 55 | 110 | 103 | 115 | 179 |
Condos | 65 | 96 | 177 | 85 | 118 | 120 |
Sales are a lagging indicator of market activity. On the surface, that would suggest that August sales were less likely to be impacted by the fires in August. That said, there were a number of cancelled contracts in the aftermath of the fire. In some cases, those were properties directly impacted by the fire or just buyers who may have had a change of heart in light of the recent events. The August home sales ended up coming in substantially lower then August of 2022 and well below “normal” sales volumes in 2019 and 2018.
I was a little surprised to see September 2023 home sales outpaced September of 2022. That said, sales volume dipped in the fall of 2022 as rising rates weighed on the market. A look back at pre-Covid sales activity provides some additional context with this September’s volume well below 2018 and 2019. Condo sales came in well below any September over the last five years.
End of the September Maui Home Inventory
The charts below show the active and pending home inventory on the last day of September by price point and Community. The last days of July and August are also included to show general inventory trends.
7/31/2023 | 8/31/2023 | 9/30/2023 | ||||
Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
<$750,000 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 10 (+5) | 9 (-1) |
$750,000-$999,999 | 23 | 21 | 17 | 21 | 18 (+1) | 13 (-8) |
$1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 45 | 44 | 34 | 45 | 40 (+6) | 38 (-7) |
$1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 32 | 14 | 21 | 18 | 28 (+7) | 12 (-6) |
$2,000,000-$3,000,000 | 35 | 10 | 25 | 13 | 31 (+6) | 9 (-4) |
$3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 37 | 9 | 24 | 8 | 26 (+2) | 7 (-1) |
$5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 38 | 5 | 29 | 8 | 31 (+2) | 4 (-4) |
$10,000,000-$19,999,999 | 16 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 11 (-3) | 0 |
$20,000,000+ | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Total | 235 | 114 | 173 | 123 | 199 (+16) | 92 (-31) |
7/31/2023 | 8/31/2023 | 9/30/2023 | ||||
Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
Haiku | 21 | 7 | 17 | 7 | 20 (+3) | 10 (+3) |
Hana | 12 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 1 (+1) |
Ka’anapali | 11 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 11 (+3) | 2 (-3) |
Kahului | 7 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 8 (-3) |
Kapalua | 10 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 5 (-2) | 1 (-2) |
Kihei | 24 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 27 (+11) | 13 (-5) |
Kula | 20 | 10 | 17 | 12 | 25 (+8) | 10 (-2) |
Lahaina | 26 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 11 (-2) | 1 (-2) |
Makawao | 21 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 12 (-2) | 14 (-1) |
Napili/Kahana/Hono… | 14 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 8 (+3) | 1 (-3) |
Pukalani | 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 2 (-1) |
Sprecks/Paia | 10 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 2 (-2) |
Wailea | 23 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 17 (-2) | 4 |
Wailuku | 16 | 43 | 13 | 33 | 21 (+8) | 23 (-10) |
Five Notable Things About The End of September Home Inventory
- Active inventory of homes for sale at the end of September rose by 15%. That comes after a big 26% plunge in active listings at the end of August. Pending sales dropped by 25% at the end of September after an 8% increase in pending sales at the end of August. After a drop in active listings in the immediate aftermath of the fires, listings are increasing now as some properties come back to market and decreased buyer activity as evidenced by the big decrease in pending sales.
- Looking at active inventory by price point, all price points except the very top of the market saw an increase in active listings. The only reason actives decreased at the high end of the market was cancellations. This is a time of the year when high end properties may withdraw for a month or two to refresh their days on market.
- Pending sales decreased at all price points except the very top of the market. The only reason high end pending sales didn’t decrease month to month is that you can’t decrease below zero.
- Shifting to active inventory by community, changes in listing were a lot more variable. Active listings increased in six communities, decreased in four communities and remain unchanged in four communities. Kihei, Wailuku and Kula experienced the biggest increase in active listings.
- Looking at pending sales by community, the decrease in pending sales is almost island wide. Hana had one new pending sale and Wailea pending sales remained unchanged.
End of September Maui Condo Inventory
7/31/2023 | 8/31/2023 | 9/30/2023 | ||||
Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
<250,000 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 (-1) | 2 (+1) |
$250,000-$499,999 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 5 | 14 (-2) | 11 (+6) |
$500,000-$749,999 | 41 | 39 | 29 | 35 | 32 (+3) | 24 (-9) |
$750,000-$999,999 | 32 | 28 | 25 | 24 | 40 (+15) | 10 (-14) |
$1,000,000-$1,499,999 | 34 | 18 | 29 | 16 | 37 (+8) | 12 (-4) |
$1,500,000-$1,999,999 | 26 | 36 | 21 | 29 | 29 (+8) | 30 (+1) |
$2,000,000-$2,999,999 | 18 | 40 | 17 | 37 | 20 (+3) | 39 (+2) |
$3,000,000-$4,999,999 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 17 (+2) |
$5,000,000-$9,999,999 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 7 (-3) | 0 (-1) |
$10,000,000+ | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 (-2) | 0 |
Totals | 193 | 197 | 163 | 163 | 192 (+29) | 145 (-18) |
7/31/2023 | 8/31/2023 | 9/30/2023 | ||||
Active | Pending | Active | Pending | Active | Pending | |
Ka’anapali | 20 | 9 | 22 | 7 | 34 (+12) | 9 (+2) |
Kahului | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 (-2) | 5 (+3) |
Kapalua | 16 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 11 (-3) | 1 (+1) |
Kihei | 62 | 51 | 51 | 40 | 64 (+13) | 25 (-15) |
Lahaina | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 (-1) | 0 |
Ma’alaea | 4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 (-1) | 4 (-1) |
Napili/Kahana/Hono | 43 | 29 | 41 | 19 | 47 (+6) | 13 (-6) |
Wailea | 23 | 87 | 20 | 81 | 26 (+6) | 79 (-2) |
Wailuku | 9 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 (-1) | 9 |
Five Notable Things about the End of September Condo Inventory
The charts below provide end of the month active and pending condo inventory by price point and district. It is worth noting that the Wailea pending sales receive a boost from 75 new developer units under contract in La’i Loa at Wailea Hills. As of the end of September, they constitute over 50% of the pending condo sales. These properties went under contract between 2020 and the the first quarter of 2021. Priced from just under $1,500,000 all the way up to over $4,000,000, these long term contracts are also skewing the pending sales upwards in this price range. We should start seeing the very first La’i Loa sales at the end of October.
- The active inventory of condos on the island at the end of September increased 18% over the last day of August. The number of pending sales on the island at the end of September decreased 11% from the end of August. This comes after both active and pending condo sales decreased significantly from the last day of July to the last day of August.
- Looking at active condo listings by price point, inventory increased in five price ranges, decreased in four price ranges and remained unchanged in one. The increase in inventory occurred with condos priced between $500,000 and $3,000,000. Active inventory decreased below $500,000 and increased over $5,000,000.
- Pending condo sales increased at five price points, decreased in four priced points and remained unchanged at one price point. The increase in pending sales was clustered below $500,000 and between $1,500,000 and $5,000,000. The decrease in pending sales occurred primarily between $500,000 and $1,500,000.
- Looking at condo inventory by community, active inventory increased in four communities, decreased in five communities and remained unchanged in one. Ka’anapali and Kihei both had a big increase in active inventory. The Napili, Kahana and Honokowai area and Wailea also saw healthy bumps in active listings. The decrease in active listings in communities tended to be far more modest.
- Pending listings decreased in four communities, increased in three communities and remained unchanged in two communities. Kihei had by far the largest drop in pending sales followed by the Napili, Kahana and Honokowai area. Kahului saw the biggest increase in pending sales.
What Does it All Mean?
Last month, we had the opportunity to attend a broker event hosted by the Realtor’s Association of Maui. One of the speakers was a Broker from Paradise, California. She provided a lot of valuable insights based on her own experiences from her community’s tragic fires in 2018. the broker spoke to the rebuild process, federal relief, insurance and more.
The broker also spoke about the impact of the fire on the real estate market. Communities within a short drive of Paradise began to see price increases shortly after the fire. Within a couple of months of the fires, nearby Chico saw a big increase in listings receiving multiple offers. Many of these buyers were displaced residents from Paradise using insurance money to buy new homes.
Will we see a similar phenomenon on Maui? The Broker from Paradise thought we would. We are definitely seeing some displaced residents buying property on other parts of the island. I know first hand of buyers purchasing replacement homes in Kapalua and replacement condos in Kihei and Kahului. That said, I am not sure that the market near Paradise is 100% analogous to the market on Maui.
Maui lost roughly 3% of its housing stock in the Lahaina Fire alone with additional homes lost to fire Upcountry. This exacerbates Maui’s already significant housing shortage. In that respect, like Paradise, there is certainly tremendous need for replacement housing for island residents.
Where things start to differ from Paradise is on the affordability side. Prices in 2023 Maui are substantially higher than the communities near Paradise in 2019. Borrowing costs are also substantially higher. Mortgage rates in early 2019 hovered around 4.5%, while just this week rates crossed the 8% barrier. Plain and simple, insurance proceeds from the fire may not be sufficient for many displaced residents to afford the replacement housing that they need.
Of course, Maui is also a big second home market. There is typically a pretty close tie between visitor numbers and second home demand. Visitor numbers are down substantially since the fires. Areas like Ka’anapali are still closed to tourism as many of the area hotels are hosting displaced residents. We aren’t sure when visitor numbers will come close to what they were prior to the fire. When they do return, how much will rising interest rates and affordability concerns impact second home buyers?
The push and pull between Maui’s incredibly limited supply and what at this point is uncertain demand will determine the market. A world with increased international tensions brings even further unknowns. Oh yeah, and of course 2024 is a Presidential election year. Based on all of the above, I would be wary of anyone who speaks with certainty about the direction of the Maui Real Estate Market. That said, we will continue to provide data so that buyers and sellers can make informed decisions.