Maui Real Estate Market Update Q2 2025 Vol. 3

To start the second half of the year, I thought I might mix things up on the format of our Maui Real Estate Market Update.

I have always been a bit of a data geek when it comes to our statistics. That’s why we don’t just repost the stats from the local Realtor Association. We post stats exclusively for Maui and exclude data from Molokai and Lanai. They are different islands and different markets. We also comb through the MLS to compile our own data on pending sales and new listings. While we include sales data, it holds a less prominent position since it is a lagging indicator of our market.

If you are a data geek like us, we hope you appreciate the information we provide. We also recognize that not everyone has the time or the attention span to make it through one of our typical stats posts. With that in mind, we start the June post with some observations on the market.

For those who love the data, don’t worry, it will still be there. You will just need to scroll down a little further. Without further ado, here is the Maui Market Update looking back at June.

What We Are Seeing in the Market

The June Maui Real Estate Market continued a pattern of slower buyer demand. New pending home and new pending condo sales for the month were well below what we saw during pre-COVID “normal “markets. Specifically, new home and condo pendings were 47.8% and 55.8% below the average of the three Junes between 2017 and 2019.

While new listings are also below pre-COVID levels, home inventory continues to grow, with fewer buyers on the market to purchase existing listings. We have not yet reached the pre-COVID inventory of homes for sale, but the number of active home listings at the end of June was still 38% higher than it was at the same time last year.

Condo inventory actually decreased last month compared to the month prior, but we can’t attribute that to increased buyer demand. We are seeing some sellers withdraw from the market. This may be due to the continued uncertainty surrounding increased restrictions on short-term rentals, lower buyer demand, sellers temporarily withdrawing to refresh their listings, or a combination of these factors. Condo inventory remains well above pre-COVID levels.

The higher inventory in the condo market continues to weigh on prices. While Minatoya list condos have seen the most significant declines, we are also seeing lower prices in both hotel-zoned condos and non-vacation rentals. That said, the percentage decrease in values varies widely among different developments.

As an aside, we mentioned in our last market update that we could be approaching a vote on the Minatoya legislation. We did not see a vote in June or early July. The county council will resume discussion on the bill later in July. I would not be surprised if this discussion continues to drag on in the coming months. We will update the results of the vote on this blog.

As noted in last month’s post, we are starting to see some signs that values are slipping in some segments of the Maui home market. While inventory remains below pre-COVID-19 levels, demand is also well below pre-COVID-19 levels. Places where the imbalance between supply and demand is more acute are seeing more price reductions. As with the condo market, market conditions vary widely by community and price point.

What does this all mean for buyers and sellers? Let’s start with buyers. Good news. The market is significantly less frenzied than it was a few years ago. Competitive offer situations are primarily found in the $1,000,000 and under segment of the market. For most of the rest of the market, there is an opportunity for buyers to make offers. While some sellers remain stuck in a 2021/2022 mindset, a growing pool of sellers is showing signs of renewed motivation.

For sellers, it is worth reiterating that this is no longer 2021/2022. There are fewer buyers, and they are more particular. Overpriced properties are getting fewer showings, and you want to do what you can to get buyers through your door. We work closely with our sellers to review recent comparable sales and pending sales, identifying a go-to-market price that will enhance your chances of a quicker sale.

A Little Maui Beauty Before You Digest the Data

June Maui Market Activity

For a deeper look at the data, here are the numbers for last month’s new listings, pending sales in June, and closed transactions. I include previous months of June for context, including the average of June 2017, 2018, and 2019, to provide a pre-COVID “normal” market activity baseline.

June New Listings

June’s new home listings decreased by 22.2% compared to June 2024. This June’s new inventory was 34.4% below the average June between 2017 and 2019. June’s new condo listings decreased 4.5% compared to last June. This June’s new condo inventory was 19.6% below the average number of new listings in June 2017-2019.

June New Pending Sales

The number of homes that went pending in June was 4.1% lower than in June of last year. This June’s new pending home sales were 47.8% below the average for the months of June 2017-2019. New pending condo sales rose 8.2% over last June. This June’s new condo pendings fell 55.8% below the average June between 2017 and 2019.

June Closed Transactions

Home sales ticked up a modest 1.6% compared to last June. This June’s closed home sales lagged behind the average number of home sales in June between 2017 and 2019 by 33.7%. Condo sales this June were 5.4% below June 2024, and 59.5% below the June average between 2017 and 2019.

End of June Maui Home Inventory

Notable Numbers from the End of June Maui Home Inventory

Just a quick note for long-time readers of our market updates. I tweaked this section slightly from its usual format by adding more long-range comparisons, rather than just highlighting the difference in inventory from the previous month.

Between the last day of May and the last day of June, the number of active home listings increased from 404 to 407 (less than 1%). The active home inventory was 38.4% higher at the end of June compared to June 30, 2024.

The number of pending home listings decreased from 110 to 99 (11%). The pending sales at the end of June were 18.9% below those of June 30, 2024.

Examining active home listings by price point, the $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 price range continues to experience steady growth in active listings, with six more listings added this month. Since April 30th, inventory in this price range increased by 30.1%. Active inventory in this price range was up 136.7% since June 30, 2024.

None of the price ranges we track had an increase in pending sales between the end of May and the end of June.

Kula is the one community where active listings are showing a clear decrease over the last couple of months. There were 25.6% fewer active listings between April 30th and June 30th. Lahaina active listings are going in the opposite direction. There were 41.2% more listings between April 30th and June 30th.

The changes in pending sales were generally modest. Makawao had the most notable decrease in pending sales, with 35.7% less at the end of June compared to the last day of April. While that sounds like a lot, we are talking about a decrease from 14 pending sales to 9.

End of June Maui Condo Inventory

Notable Numbers and Comments from the end of June, Maui Condo Inventory

The number of active condo listings fell 1.5% between the end of May and the end of June. It is down 3.7% from the end of April. For context, the number of active condo listings on June 30th was still 31.5% higher than they were at the end of June 2024.

Pending condo listings were 2.4% lower between the end of May and the last day of June. The number of pendings at the end of June was 9.1% less than on April 30th. As of the end of June, pending sales were 9.6% higher than they were on June 30, 2024.

Examining active inventory by price point, most price points remained either unchanged or decreased slightly over the past couple of months. Only the number of active condos in the $250,000 to $499,999 range increased.

Pending sales by price point are somewhat mixed. The under $250,000 price range saw the most significant increase in pending sales between the end of April and the end of June. That and the $10,000,000+ price ranges are the only parts of the market where the ratio of active listings to pending sales isn’t striking.

Looking at active listings by community, only Ma’alaea and Ka’anapali had more active listings at the end of June compared to the end of April. Wailuku’s active inventory decreased the most over that time with a 16.7% drop.

Kahului and Wailuku were the two communities where pending sales increased between the end of April and June 30th. There are no vacation rentals in these communities, pointing to a slight uptick in activity for owner-occupant and long-term rental condos.

>> Contact The Maui Real Estate Team if you have any questions, comments, or need assistance with buying or selling. We welcome your feedback on the new format of our market updates. Please let us know if there’s anything else you’d like us to cover in these posts. We would also be happy to compile an analysis of a specific market segment that interests you.